Rupee Slides as Dollar Strength and Policy Risks Drive USDINR Higher

Key Moments

The US Dollar strengthened after firmer Jobless Claims data cut year-end easing expectations to 48 bps from 54 bps.
The Indian Rupee stays under structural pressure as RBI intervention has failed to halt further weakness.
USDINR broke above resistance near 90.40, shifting focus toward the channel top around 92.00.

Macro Backdrop: Dollar Regains Momentum

The US Dollar advanced after stronger-than-expected Jobless Claims data. As a result, traders unwound dovish positions that formed after softer US core inflation readings. Market pricing for total policy easing by year-end fell to 48 basis points from 54 bps.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials continue to stress patience and data dependence. Improving labor indicators are supporting the greenback. Therefore, the Dollar bias may persist if upcoming data remains firm.

Indian Rupee Remains Under Pressure

The Indian Rupee continues to trade in a bearish structural trend against the US Dollar. Recently, a technical breakout increased downside pressure. However, RBI efforts to stabilize the currency have not reversed the move.

India’s annual inflation rose to 1.33% in December from 0.71% in November. While inflation remains well below the RBI’s 4% target, it is now closer to the lower end of the 2%–6% tolerance band. Against this backdrop, markets do not expect another rate cut at the February meeting.

Meanwhile, trade-related risks remain in focus. Former President Trump warned of 25% tariffs on countries doing business with Iran. Since India has been a major trading partner of Iran, investors are watching for any escalation that could weigh further on the Rupee.

USDINR Technical Picture – Daily Chart

On the daily chart, USDINR has broken decisively above resistance near 90.40. This move triggered stronger buying interest. Consequently, traders are now targeting the upper channel boundary near 92.00.

For now, the structure favors a buy-on-dips approach. Sellers, however, may wait for price to reach channel resistance or for a clear break below the lower trendline before building bearish positions.

Timeframe	Key Level / Zone	Bias	Implication
Daily	90.40 support; channel top near 92.00	Buy-on-dips	Upside focus remains while price holds above support
4-hour	Former resistance at 90.40 now support	Bullish above support	Pullbacks seen as re-entry opportunities
1-hour	90.40 intraday support	Range-bound	Dip-buying favored unless support breaks

USDINR Technical Analysis – 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, the breakout above 90.40 is clearer. Buyers stepped in aggressively, pushing prices higher. If the pair pulls back, traders are likely to view former resistance as a support zone.

However, sellers would need a sustained break below this level. Such a move could open the door to a deeper correction toward the lower channel boundary.

USDINR Technical Analysis – 1-Hour Chart

On the 1-hour chart, price action continues to revolve around 90.40. Buyers remain focused on dip-buying near support. Meanwhile, sellers wait for a confirmed break lower to improve risk-reward conditions.