Key Moments
- LME copper prices have jumped 23% since November, moving above $13,000, which Goldman Sachs attributes largely to speculative inflows.
- Earlier 2025 copper gains were linked to the US dollar, China growth expectations, and ex-US tightness, but Goldman Sachs says these drivers are not behind the latest move.
- Goldman Sachs still expects a refined copper tariff to be announced mid-year and to take effect in January 2027, despite the current focus on non-tariff measures.
Speculation Seen at Core of Copper Rally
Investing.com – Goldman Sachs states that London Metal Exchange (LME) copper has risen 23% since November, pushing prices above $13,000. According to the investment bank, this advance is being propelled predominantly by speculative inflows rather than underlying supply-demand fundamentals.
The firm explains that earlier phases of copper strength in 2025 were largely shaped by movements in the US dollar, expectations around Chinese economic growth, or tight conditions in markets outside the United States. Goldman Sachs underscores that these influences are not responsible for the current upswing.
Instead, the bank highlights that stocks in markets outside the US have actually grown in recent months, occurring at the same time as inventory accumulation continues within the United States. This pattern, in Goldman’s assessment, reinforces the view that the recent price action has been driven primarily by speculative activity.
CTA flows stay metal-heavy. Gold & silver remain near peak positioning, while copper and aluminum show strong, steady momentum.
Energy is still cautious (Brent/diesel net short), and soft commodities remain weak. Systematic trends continue to favor metals over everything else. pic.twitter.com/qMx03G6m6Y
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) January 15, 2026
Policy Developments Around Copper and Critical Minerals
Goldman Sachs notes that it had accurately predicted that copper tariffs would not be rolled out in tandem with the Critical Minerals Section 232 decision, which was issued on January 14th. The Section 232 report’s recommendation to the President preserves the option of introducing tariffs at a later stage.
Rather than immediately imposing tariffs, the declaration focuses on using price floors and engaging in negotiations with foreign counterparts to secure adequate critical mineral supplies for the United States.
Implications for COMEX-LME Pricing and US Strategy
Goldman Sachs indicates that this emphasis on price floors and international negotiations could result in a narrower COMEX premium relative to the LME price in the coming months. The firm links this potential shift to the Trump Administration’s examination of alternatives to tariffs in its efforts to strengthen US metals supply security.
Although the policy stance now extends beyond tariffs alone, Goldman Sachs continues to project that a refined copper tariff will be unveiled around mid-year and come into force in January 2027. The bank characterizes this as its baseline forecast, noting that the administration is no longer depending exclusively on tariffs to address concerns around metal supply security.
Copper Market Dynamics at a Glance
| Metric / Event | Detail |
|---|---|
| LME copper price move since November | Up 23%, above $13,000 |
| Primary driver of current rally | Speculative inflows, according to Goldman Sachs |
| Earlier 2025 price drivers | US dollar, China growth expectations, ex-US tightness |
| Inventory trends | Ex-US stocks have risen; US inventories continue to build |
| Critical Minerals Section 232 decision date | January 14th |
| Tariff status in Section 232 outcome | No immediate copper tariffs; future tariffs remain possible |
| Policy tools highlighted | Price floors and negotiations with foreign nations |
| Goldman Sachs baseline forecast | Refined copper tariff announcement mid-year; implementation in January 2027 |
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