Key Moments
- Delta Air Lines expects about 20% earnings growth in 2026, driven by premium and corporate travel.
- Premium products increased revenue by 9% in the December quarter, while main-cabin revenue fell 7% year over year.
- Delta ordered 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft, with options for 30 more, to diversify its long-haul fleet.
Premium Strategy Drives Delta’s 2026 Outlook
Delta Air Lines expects roughly 20% earnings growth in 2026. This growth is mainly supported by higher-income travelers and corporate customers. Meanwhile, demand for economy seating remains weak.
However, the airline’s stock fell nearly 5% in premarket trading. This decline followed guidance that came in below analysts’ midpoint expectations.
Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian said most capacity growth will be focused on premium cabins. In contrast, the main cabin will see little expansion. He added that Delta’s core customers continue to prioritize travel and premium experiences.
This shift reflects broader consumer trends. Across industries such as apparel, automotive, and travel, companies are targeting higher-margin customers. As Bastian put it, “The strength in the consumer sector is at the higher end of the curve.”
Widening Gap Between Premium and Main Cabin Performance
Bastian described the divide in consumer spending clearly. “The lower-end consumer is struggling,” he said. He added that Delta is less exposed to that segment.
This gap was evident in the December quarter. Overall passenger revenue rose just 1%. However, performance varied sharply by cabin type. Main-cabin revenue dropped 7%, while premium revenue increased 9%.
| Metric (December Quarter) | Year-over-year Change |
|---|---|
| Total passenger revenue | +1% |
| Main-cabin ticket revenue | -7% |
| Premium product revenue | +9% |
As a result, the broader airline industry is feeling pressure. Carriers that rely on price-sensitive travelers are struggling with weak margins and excess capacity. Consequently, several low-cost airlines have pulled back or consolidated.
Within this environment, Allegiant announced plans to acquire Sun Country Airlines. At the same time, Spirit Airlines entered a second bankruptcy process.
$DAL is coming into earnings with strong results from last quarter, but the bar is set high. Here are the main things to keep an eye on.
1. Premium travel: Last quarter, Delta saw strong demand for premium seats and business travel. Investors will want to see if customers are… pic.twitter.com/lfBa1w9W4v
— Investing with Charly AI (@charly___AI) January 12, 2026
Guidance, Market Reaction, and Booking Trends
Bastian described Delta’s outlook as “upbeat.” He pointed to record booking trends early in the year. Still, the company kept a forecast range due to geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Delta’s guidance also affected peers. United Airlines and American Airlines shares both fell about 3%.
For 2026, Delta expects adjusted earnings per share between $6.50 and $7.50. In addition, the airline projects free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion.
| Metric | 2026 Guidance / Estimate |
|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS (Delta forecast) | $6.50 – $7.50 |
| Free cash flow (Delta forecast) | $3 billion – $4 billion |
| Analysts’ 2026 EPS expectation (LSEG) | $7.25 |
| Analysts’ quarterly EPS expectation (LSEG) | $0.72 |
International Demand and Revenue Mix
International demand remains solid overall, according to Bastian. However, some regions have yet to fully recover. Canada and China continue to lag, with China capacity still well below pre-pandemic levels.
Looking ahead, Bastian said the upcoming World Cup could boost inbound travel. This may help ease some international demand constraints.
Delta ended 2025 with a record share of premium and diversified revenue. Nearly 60% of total revenue came from premium cabins, loyalty programs, and other non-ticket sources. These include its long-standing partnership with American Express.
Recent Performance and Macro Disruptions
In the fourth quarter, Delta posted adjusted earnings of $1.55 per share. This result slightly exceeded analyst expectations. However, results were hurt by the longest U.S. government shutdown on record.
The shutdown disrupted tens of thousands of flights. As a result, quarterly profit fell by about $200 million.
Earlier in 2025, airlines faced another challenge. Widespread U.S. tariffs weakened consumer confidence and reduced demand. Delta’s 2026 outlook assumes those disruptions will not repeat.
Delta Expands and Diversifies Long-Haul Fleet With Boeing 787-10
As part of its fleet strategy, Delta will buy 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft. It also holds options for 30 more. Deliveries will begin in 2031, and the model will be new to Delta’s fleet.
Bastian said Delta chose the 787-10 for its efficiency and flexibility. The aircraft is well suited for medium-length international routes. These include transatlantic flights and service to South America.
Compared with larger aircraft like the Airbus A350, the 787-10 offers lower operating costs on many routes. As a result, it fits Delta’s evolving network needs.
Over the past 15 years, Delta has relied heavily on Airbus aircraft. Its fleet includes A220 and A320-family jets, as well as A330 and A350 widebodies. The Boeing order signals a strategic shift.
Bastian said the move reduces reliance on a single supplier. “It’s tough to operate while depending on only one manufacturer,” he said.
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