Gold Holds Near Recent Highs as Markets Brace for U.S. Jobs Data

Key Moments

Fundamental Drivers

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds from a brief dip toward $4,453 and trades near the upper end of its daily range as the European session approaches on Friday. However, upside momentum remains limited. Traders are reluctant to take large positions ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due later in the day.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes US NFP, Supreme Court ruling for the next big move

Gold is battling a critical resistance just under the $4,500 threshold early Friday,#Gold #GBPJPY #GBPUSD #gbpaud #XAUUSD $GOLD $XAUUSD $GBPJPY $GBPAUD pic.twitter.com/jsi8gyB2Aq

— Priscilla Miller (@Priscilliamill) January 9, 2026

The jobs report is critical for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. As a result, it will influence demand for the U.S. Dollar and direction for the non-yielding metal. Meanwhile, expectations for two additional Fed rate cuts this year, along with persistent geopolitical risks, continue to underpin gold prices.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar extends its two-week rally and trades near a one-month high. This strength runs counter to the dovish rate outlook and caps enthusiasm among gold bulls. Consequently, the mixed backdrop encourages caution before fresh upside bets.

Market-Moving Headlines and Positioning

The U.S. Dollar climbed to its strongest level since December 10 during Asian trading on Friday. As a result, gold faced renewed pressure as traders adjusted positions ahead of the NFP release.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that lower interest rates remain the “missing ingredient” for stronger economic growth. He added that, in his view, the Federal Reserve should not delay easing policy.

Meanwhile, derivatives markets continue to price in potential Fed rate cuts in March and later in the year. This outlook typically supports non-yielding assets such as gold. Still, traders are waiting for clearer confirmation, keeping attention firmly on the monthly labor data.

Consensus estimates suggest the U.S. economy added 60K jobs in December, down from 64K in November. The Unemployment Rate is expected to ease to 4.5% from 4.6%. How the data compares with forecasts, along with any revisions, will likely set the near-term tone for both the Dollar and gold.

Geopolitics Support Safe-Haven Demand

Beyond monetary policy, rising geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for gold. In particular, investors remain cautious due to several ongoing risks:

• Political unrest linked to recent U.S. actions in Venezuela.
• Rising diplomatic tensions between China and Japan.
• The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict.

In an interview with The New York Times on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said he expects the U.S. to maintain long-term involvement in Venezuela, including access to its oil reserves.

Separately, China has restricted exports of rare earths and magnets to Japan following comments on Taiwan by Japan’s prime minister. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said an end to the war in Ukraine remains unlikely, warning that proposals to deploy European troops would be dangerous. Together, these developments continue to support interest in safe-haven assets like gold.

Technical Overview: Key Levels in Focus

From a technical standpoint, XAU/USD continues to trade above its rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average at $4,322.58. This level helps preserve the broader bullish structure and supports pullbacks.

Momentum indicators also show improvement. The MACD remains below zero but is curling higher, while the negative histogram narrows. At the same time, the RSI stands at 56, comfortably above neutral and consistent with stabilizing momentum rather than overbought conditions.

To strengthen the bullish case, gold needs a sustained break above the $4,500 zone. Conversely, holding above $4,322.58 remains critical. A decisive drop below that level would raise the risk of a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Nonfarm Payrolls: Core Labor Market Gauge

The Nonfarm Payrolls report tracks monthly job changes across U.S. non-agricultural sectors and is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data often shows volatility and frequent revisions, which can trigger sharp market moves.

Generally, stronger-than-expected payroll growth supports the U.S. Dollar, while weaker data weighs on it. However, traders also assess revisions and the Unemployment Rate. As a result, market reaction depends on the full report rather than the headline number alone.

Why NFP Matters for Traders

The U.S. jobs report is widely viewed as the most important release for FX markets. Published on the first Friday of each month, it offers a timely snapshot of economic momentum.

Because full employment sits at the core of the Fed’s mandate, labor data heavily influences interest-rate decisions and currency values. Even with many leading indicators available, NFP often surprises markets and sparks volatility. Strong results usually lift the U.S. Dollar, while weaker data tends to pressure it, with spillover effects for gold.