Key Moments
- Deutsche Bank raised price targets across its metals and mining coverage, citing strong metal prices and mining equities at the start of 2026.
- The bank upgraded its 2026 commodity price estimates, including copper at approximately $12,000/t, aluminum at $2,900/t, and iron at $102/t.
- Analyst Liam Fitzpatrick highlighted structural support for higher metal prices, particularly copper, despite concerns about the rapid pace of the rally.
Broad Upgrade Across Metals and Mining Coverage
Deutsche Bank has raised price targets across its metals and mining research universe, pointing to robust metal prices and a strong performance in mining shares at the start of 2026.
Within its latest review, the bank adjusted both ratings and target prices for several names. Antofagasta PLC was lowered from Hold to Sell, even as its price target was increased to 2800p from 2400p.
Key Rating and Target Price Actions
Deutsche Bank kept Buy recommendations in place for Anglo American, Boliden AB, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Glencore, Norsk Hydro, and Teck (NYSE:TECK), while implementing sizeable upward revisions to their target prices.
| Company | Ticker / Listing | Previous Rating | New Rating | Previous Target | New Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antofagasta PLC | Not specified | Hold | Sell | 2400p | 2800p |
| Anglo American | Not specified | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
| Boliden AB | Not specified | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
| Freeport-McMoRan | NYSE:FCX | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
| Glencore | Not specified | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
| Norsk Hydro | Not specified | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
| Teck | NYSE:TECK | Buy | Buy | Not specified | Increased |
Drivers Behind the Metals Rally
Deutsche Bank analyst Liam Fitzpatrick described the ongoing rally in metals and mining as comparable to the upswings observed in 2022 and 2016. He attributed the move to a combination of severe supply disruptions, potential US tariffs, AI-related demand, and increased investment flows into the sector.
Higher Commodity Price Projections for 2026
Reflecting these dynamics, the bank raised its 2026 commodity price assumptions. Copper is now projected at approximately $12,000/t, up from $10,600/t. Aluminum forecasts were increased to $2,900/t from $2,609/t, while the iron price estimate was lifted to $102/t from $98/t.
| Commodity | Previous 2026 Estimate | New 2026 Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Copper | $10,600/t | $12,000/t (approx.) |
| Aluminum | $2,609/t | $2,900/t |
| Iron | $98/t | $102/t |
The bank also lifted its long-term real price forecasts by up to 5%. This adjustment reflects the transition of its valuation framework from 2025 to 2026 and the impact of a weaker US dollar.
Macro and Policy Factors to Watch
Fitzpatrick pointed to several themes that he expects to be central for industrial metals during the first half of the year: China’s March policy update, US trade policies, and the broader trajectory of global economic growth.
Outlook: Opportunities and Risks as 2026 Develops
Despite the strong beginning to the year, Deutsche Bank flagged rising unease among some investors about how quickly prices have advanced. The bank suggested that this could create buying opportunities as 2026 unfolds. At the same time, it emphasized that structural supports for elevated metal prices – with copper singled out in particular – are expected to remain in place.
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