Key Moments:
- Gold led the precious metals complex in 2025, supported by three Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong central bank buying.
- Platinum and palladium, key inputs for auto catalysts, posted substantial gains amid EU policy shifts, tight supply, and tariff uncertainty.
- Despite downside signals for gold and silver, platinum and palladium appear to have limited further downside near major monthly support levels.
Macro Backdrop and Gold’s Leadership
Gold emerged as a leading asset in 2025. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. This encouraged investment in gold. Market expectations for more rate cuts in 2026 continue to support positive sentiment.
Central banks added another layer of support. Several emerging markets increased their gold reserves to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, also reinforced gold’s role as a safe-haven asset.
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend caused some initial market uncertainty. While gold and silver showed downside pressure, palladium is expected to have room to outperform. Geopolitical and tariff concerns could shift attention toward pollution reduction, creating opportunities for value-driven buying.
Silver and Platinum Outpace Gold
Other precious metals recorded even stronger gains. Silver prices rose nearly 150% in 2025. Its dual role as a monetary metal and industrial input drove demand higher.
Industrial usage increased across the solar, EV, electronics, and data center sectors. Limited market size and increased speculative positioning amplified price gains.
Platinum also performed exceptionally, advancing more than 110%. Constrained supply and stronger demand pushed the market higher. Restricted mine production and underinvestment left platinum exposed to sharp price swings when consumption improved.
Even after modest pullbacks, precious metals outperformed most major asset classes in 2025. Inflows into ETFs and robust retail demand added momentum to the rally, especially during market stress episodes.
Platinum’s Historic Monthly Surge
While U.S. Copper Futures fell 1.9% to $5.67 per pound, platinum prices are on track for their strongest monthly advance in nearly 40 years in December. This was driven by the EU reversing its 2035 ban on combustion-engine vehicles, tight supply, and rising investment appetite.
Platinum and palladium, widely used in automotive catalytic converters, rallied amid U.S. tariff uncertainty. Gains in gold and silver also supported these metals.
The EU’s December 2025 plan boosts demand for PGMs in catalytic converters. While not open-ended, the framework suggests continued tightening of emissions standards, which will likely require higher PGM use.
Platinum, used in jewelry and other sectors, is up 33% in December—the largest monthly rise since 1986. After reaching $2,478.50 per ounce, it is heading for its strongest annual gain on record at 146%. Palladium rose 80%, and rhodium gained 95% in 2025.
| Metal | Performance Metric | Value / Change | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Key asset supported by Fed easing | 3 rate cuts | 2025 |
| Silver | Price change | +150% | 2025 |
| Platinum | Annual performance | +110% | 2025 |
| Platinum | December move | +33% | Dec 2025 |
| Platinum | Record price | $2,478.50/oz | Monday |
| Platinum | Yearly growth | 146% | 2025 (record) |
| Palladium | YTD performance | +80% | 2025 |
| Rhodium | YTD performance | +95% | 2025 |
| U.S. Copper Futures | Price change | -1.9% ($5.67/lb) | Recent |
Supply, Tariffs, and China’s Futures Launch
Platinum and palladium benefited from defensive inventory building and tighter availability in regional physical markets. Outflows to the U.S. after Washington added them to the critical minerals list contributed to this trend. Investors also anticipate clearer guidance on U.S. tariffs in January 2026.
China launched PGM futures a month ago, boosting speculative activity. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted price limits to accommodate these trades. These contracts provide domestic hedging tools for PGMs in the world’s second-largest economy, the largest consumer of these metals.
Future strength in Chinese import demand is a key variable. Analysts expect the major test for PGMs will come once the market gains clarity on U.S. tariffs.
Technical Outlook and Risk Considerations
Recent trends in precious metals futures suggest that gold and silver may face further weakness in the coming weeks. This could create additional selling pressure for platinum and palladium.
However, both platinum and palladium are near strong monthly support zones. Any further decline from current levels is likely to be limited.
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