Oil Edges Lower as Market Shrugs Off Venezuela Turmoil

Key Moments

Brent crude futures traded at $60.54 a barrel, while U.S. WTI was at $57.04, both slightly lower.
The U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro raised political risks, but ample global supply limited short-term market pressure.
OPEC+ kept output steady, while investors monitored potential U.S. military actions and sanctions developments.

Oil Prices Ease Despite Venezuelan Shock

Oil prices dipped on Monday in Asia. Traders weighed potential fallout from Venezuela against ample global crude supplies.

By 0452 GMT, Brent crude fell 21 cents, or 0.4%, to $60.54 a barrel. U.S. WTI lost 28 cents, or 0.5%, to $57.04 a barrel.

Trading was choppy early in the session. Prices opened weaker, then briefly moved higher, before giving up gains again. Investors were reassessing geopolitical risks versus market fundamentals.

Market Snapshot

Contract	Price (USD/barrel)	Move	Percentage Change	Time
Brent crude futures	$60.54	-$0.21	-0.4%	0452 GMT
WTI crude futures	$57.04	-$0.28	-0.5%	0452 GMT

U.S. Action in Venezuela and Sanctions Outlook

The United States captured President Maduro in a weekend raid. This increased uncertainty for an OPEC member already under U.S. sanctions.

President Trump said Washington would oversee the country. He reiterated that the U.S. oil embargo remains fully in place following Maduro’s detention in New York.

Despite these events, analysts noted that any additional disruption to Venezuelan crude exports would likely have limited short-term effects. The global market is currently well supplied.

Goldman Sachs analysts said, “We see ambiguous but modest short-run risks to oil prices from Venezuela.” They added that 2026 oil price forecasts remain unchanged.

Potential Regime Change and Supply Implications

Some senior members of Maduro’s administration called the detentions a kidnapping. They pledged to stay in their posts and maintain loyalty to Maduro. However, analysts warned that a leadership change could affect global supply and oil prices.

JP Morgan analysts noted, “A regime change in Venezuela would be a major upside risk to the global oil supply for 2026–2027 and beyond.”

The U.S. strike caused no damage to Venezuela’s production or refining facilities. Current physical output remains intact.

OIL prices are dropping hard today.
Crude Oil has almost dumped to a 4-year low today.
The markets know that a huge supply is about to enter after the US takes over Venezuela oil supply. pic.twitter.com/f5JH0IxHkz
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) January 5, 2026

Sanctions Relief and Production Capacity

Helima Croft of RBC Capital noted that lifting sanctions could boost output by several hundred thousand barrels per day.

Trump suggested more military action is possible. He said a second strike could occur if Venezuelan officials do not cooperate to “fix” the country.

Croft added, “All bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like Libya or Iraq.”

OPEC+ Policy and Regional Risks

OPEC+ decided to maintain current production levels, keeping policy steady amid Venezuela’s situation.

Trump also hinted at possible operations in Colombia and Mexico if drug flows to the U.S. do not decline.

Analysts are watching Iran, another OPEC producer, after Trump threatened intervention during protests there. This adds further geopolitical tension for oil markets.