Key Moments
- Baird reiterates Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) at Outperform and aims to “own TSLA into the new year” as a core portfolio position.
- The firm maintains a $548 price target on TSLA, grounded on approximately 70x its 2030 EBITDA estimate discounted back to year-end 2026.
- Baird’s updated model removes prior Model 2 delivery expectations and assumes no capacity expansion beyond 3 million units annually through 2030.
Analyst Outlook and Recent Stock Performance
Investing.com – Baird anticipates that Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) will enter 2026 with a series of meaningful catalysts that could influence how investors view the stock over the course of the year.
In a Tuesday note, analyst Ben Kallo pointed out that “despite a sluggish start to the year, TSLA has gained 21% YTD and 7% in the last month,” noting that the stock has outpaced the S&P 500 on both comparisons.
Kallo emphasized that the firm intends to “own TSLA into the new year” and continues to regard the automaker as “a core holding.”
Focus on Autonomy, Robotaxis, and Global Approvals
Baird highlighted that several operational and regulatory developments could be pivotal for Tesla as the market looks ahead. The firm expects what it describes as “a year of several announcements regarding robotaxi service,” signaling that autonomy remains a central element of its Tesla thesis.
In addition to robotaxis, Baird is looking for potential updates around new geographic opportunities, revenue recognition, and regulatory approvals in key jurisdictions, specifically calling out China and the European Union as important markets to watch.
Optimus, Tesla Semi, and Energy Segment Expectations
Beyond self-driving initiatives, Kallo wrote that 2026 should feature “updates on Optimus production and incremental details on the timeline to commercialization.” The firm also anticipates higher-volume production of the Tesla Semi and ongoing expansion in Tesla’s Energy business.
Model Revisions and Capacity Assumptions
The analysts revised their financial model to reflect adjustments to vehicle mix, average selling prices (ASPs), and delivery forecasts extending through 2030.
As part of that update, Baird removed its prior expectations for Model 2 deliveries. The firm explained that what it “had previously believed to be a new form factor was ultimately a new variant of the 3/Y.” Current projections do not assume any capacity expansion above 3 million units per year.
Autonomy Timeline and FSD Data Points
On the autonomy front, Baird reaffirmed its forecast for paid robotaxi service to start in 2027 and for the first commercial sales of Optimus in late 2027. The analysts also cited “positive data points for FSD,” noting favorable feedback for FSD 14 from Nvidia’s robotics team.
Valuation and Price Target
Baird kept its price objective for Tesla unchanged at $548 per share. The valuation is based on approximately 70 times the firm’s EBITDA estimate for 2030, discounted back to year-end 2026.
| Metric / Assumption | Baird View |
|---|---|
| Rating | Outperform |
| Price Target | $548 |
| Basis for Target | ~70x 2030 EBITDA, discounted to year-end 2026 |
| Capacity Assumption | No expansion beyond 3 million units annually |
| Robotaxi Service | Paid service expected to begin in 2027 |
| Optimus Commercial Sales | First sales expected in late 2027 |
| Recent TSLA Performance | 21% YTD gain; 7% gain in the last month |
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