Key Moments
- Brent crude rose 63 cents, or 1.04%, to $61.27 per barrel at 0443 GMT, while U.S. WTI gained 58 cents, or 1.02%, to $57.32.
- Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pointed to progress toward a potential Ukraine peace deal, but territorial disputes remained unresolved.
- Analysts highlighted continued Russia-Ukraine attacks on energy infrastructure and heightened Middle East tensions as key drivers of supply risk and price support.
Oil Advances After Prior Session Sell-off
Oil futures moved higher on Monday as investors reassessed the implications of talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a possible resolution of the war in Ukraine, alongside persistent instability in the Middle East that could threaten global supplies.
By 0443 GMT, Brent crude futures were up 63 cents, or 1.04%, at $61.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 58 cents, or 1.02%, to $57.32.
The gains followed a sharp pullback on Friday, when both benchmarks dropped more than 2% as markets digested concerns over a looming global supply surplus and the prospect of a Ukraine peace arrangement ahead of weekend discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump.
| Contract | Price | Change | Percentage Change | Time (GMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | $61.27 per barrel | +$0.63 | +1.04% | 0443 |
| WTI crude | $57.32 per barrel | +$0.58 | +1.02% | 0443 |
Signals from Trump-Zelenskiy Meeting
Market participants monitored developments from the meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida. The two leaders appeared together at a joint press conference late Sunday afternoon.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine, while acknowledging that the fate of the disputed Donbas region remains a key unresolved issue.
Trump also said it should become evident “in a few weeks” whether the negotiations are on track to deliver an agreement to end the conflict.
Despite signals of progress, the talks did not settle core territorial questions. Mingyu Gao, energy and chemical chief researcher at China Futures Co. Ltd., noted that the absence of a territorial accord means a Russia-Ukraine peace deal may stay stuck with no near-term breakthrough.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Underpins Prices
Analysts pointed to ongoing hostilities involving energy infrastructure and turbulence in the Middle East as additional supports for crude prices.
The reason prices are rising also includes that geopolitical tensions remain elevated, as Russia and Ukraine continued striking each other’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, said Yang An, a China-based analyst at Haitong Futures.
Yang added that tensions in the Middle East were also feeding market anxiety about supply security: “The Middle East has also been unsettled recently, with Saudi air strikes in Yemen and Iran saying the country is in a ’full-scale war’ with the U.S., Europe, and Israel. This may be what’s driving market concerns about potential supply disruptions,” Yang added.
Trading Range Outlook and Additional Risk Factors
Looking ahead, some analysts outlined a relatively contained trading band for U.S. crude, while citing several geopolitical and policy factors that could influence price direction.
WTI is expected to trade within a $55-$60 range with an eye also on U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and any fallout from the U.S. military strike against ISIS targets in Nigeria, which produces about 1.5 million barrels per day, IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
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