Key Moments
- Jefferies projects gold prices of $4,200/oz in 2026, up from $3,418/oz in 2025. However, it maintains a longer-term assumption of $3,000/oz.
- Meanwhile, gold miners in Jefferies’ coverage are expected to see wider margins as gold prices outpace growth in all-in sustaining costs.
- As a result, the firm anticipates higher free cash flow per ounce and higher total free cash flow through 2026.
Supportive Gold-Market Backdrop Into 2026
Jefferies remains constructive on gold mining equities heading into 2026. This view is based on its December 2025 report. Notably, the firm expects favorable gold-market dynamics to persist.
In particular, Jefferies highlighted that the same forces supporting gold prices in 2025 remain in place for 2026. These ongoing drivers include de-dollarization trends and concerns around the U.S. fiscal position.
Additionally, the brokerage cited broader macroeconomic uncertainty, strong central bank demand, and continued inflows into physical gold ETFs. It also pointed to buying linked to Tether-backed gold.
Finally, Jefferies noted that geopolitical risks and equity-market volatility could further support gold prices.
Price Forecasts and Long-Term Assumptions
Against this backdrop, Jefferies forecasts gold prices of $4,200/oz in 2026, compared with $3,418/oz in 2025. Nevertheless, the firm maintains a longer-term gold price assumption of $3,000/oz.
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 Forecast | Longer-Term Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold price ($/oz) | $3,418/oz | $4,200/oz | $3,000/oz |
Margin Expansion Driven by Price-Cost Gap
Jefferies emphasized that the investment case for gold miners is strengthening. Specifically, it pointed to a widening gap between rising gold prices and slower cost growth.
According to the report, gold prices have increased much faster than all-in sustaining costs. Consequently, this trend is driving year-over-year margin expansion.
Moreover, data in the note suggest that average free cash flow margins per ounce should continue to rise through 2026. This outlook points to stronger profitability at both current and expected price levels.
Cost Inflation and Offsetting Tailwinds
At the same time, Jefferies acknowledged ongoing cost pressures across the sector. However, it stressed that inflation has generally remained below 10%.
The firm noted that higher royalties are already evident. In addition, it highlighted emerging pressure from labor and consumables.
On the positive side, Jefferies identified lower oil prices as an important offset. As a result, these tailwinds help limit cost inflation.
Taken together, the brokerage argued that these factors support margin expansion rather than margin compression.
Free Cash Flow Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead, Jefferies expects a stronger free cash flow profile for gold miners in 2026. In particular, it forecasts higher free cash flow per ounce.
Furthermore, the firm anticipates higher total free cash flow across its gold coverage universe.
Charts referenced in the report show free cash flow margins rising in both dollar-per-ounce and percentage terms. Meanwhile, aggregate free cash flow is projected to reach multi-year highs.
Capital Discipline and Strategic Focus
Lastly, Jefferies highlighted capital allocation trends among gold miners in 2025. The report observed that producers largely maintained capital discipline.
Instead of pursuing large-scale mergers and acquisitions, companies focused on organic growth and shareholder returns. As a result, balance sheets remained relatively strong.
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