Key Moments
- EDP stock rose 1% in Lisbon after ERSE issued its final decision on 2026 electricity tariffs and 2026-2029 regulatory parameters.
- ERSE set a 1.0% year-on-year increase in 2026 regulated tariffs for normal low voltage users, with grid access tariffs at €97.5/MWh.
- The nominal pre-tax rate of return was fixed at 6.70% for 2026, based on an average 10-year Portuguese yield of 3.076%.
Regulator’s Decision Lifts EDP Shares
EDP stock gained 1% in Lisbon after the Portuguese energy regulator ERSE released its final ruling on 2026 electricity tariffs and set the key parameters for the 2026-2029 regulatory period.
The decision closes the consultation process that began with ERSE’s draft proposal published in mid-October and establishes the regulatory framework that will govern Portugal’s electricity market over the next four years.
Electricity Tariffs and Grid Access
For 2026, ERSE approved a 1.0% year-on-year increase in regulated end-user electricity tariffs within the normal low voltage segment, a category that covers residential customers and small-to-medium enterprises.
This adjustment incorporates a slight rise in grid access tariffs, which were set at €97.5/MWh, compared with €97.1/MWh in the draft proposal released in October.
| Item | Draft Proposal | Final Determination |
|---|---|---|
| Grid access tariff (€ / MWh) | €97.1 | €97.5 |
| YoY change in regulated tariffs (normal low voltage) | Not specified | 1.0% |
Regulated Profit and Supply Margins
ERSE set regulated gross profit for electricity distribution at €1,252 million. This represents an increase of €28 million versus the draft proposal and a €121 million rise compared with 2025 levels, which include adjustments from prior years.
For last resort electricity supply, the regulator kept the figure unchanged from the draft determination, maintaining a regulated gross profit of €47 million.
| Segment | 2025 Reference | Draft Proposal | Final Determination | Change vs Draft |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity distribution – regulated gross profit (€ million) | 2025: €1,252m – €121m = €1,131m (implied, including adjustments) | €1,252m – €28m = €1,224m | €1,252m | +€28m |
| Last resort electricity supply – regulated gross profit (€ million) | Not specified | €47m | €47m | No change |
Rate of Return and Regulatory Parameters
The regulator’s parameters are anchored on a nominal pre-tax rate of return of 6.70% for 2026. This figure is based on an underlying average 10-year Portuguese government yield of 3.076% for that year.
On a like-for-like basis, the approved 6.70% rate of return represents an increase of 39 basis points relative to the October draft proposal.
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