Sterling Extends Advance Against Dollar as Traders Brace for Packed Data Calendar

Key Moments

GBPUSD has stayed in an uptrend, repeatedly rebounding from a major ascending trendline on multiple timeframes.
The BoE is widely expected to cut the Bank Rate by 25 bps, with markets assigning a 91% probability to a move at the upcoming meeting.
US NFP and CPI releases, along with the BoE decision and UK data, are seen as the key drivers for the next directional move in GBPUSD.

Fundamental Overview

US Dollar: Post-FOMC Weakness and Data-Driven Outlook

The USD has been on the back foot against major counterparts since last week’s FOMC decision. The Federal Reserve met expectations by cutting rates by 25 bps and signaling a higher threshold for additional easing. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference was perceived as relatively dovish.

Instead of maintaining a strictly neutral and data-dependent stance, Powell played down inflation concerns and put stronger emphasis on labor market softness. This was interpreted as indicating greater tolerance for elevated inflation than for further weakness in employment conditions.

The upcoming US NFP and CPI releases are in focus as they will help shape market positioning into what is described as the last real trading week of the year before holiday-related liquidity fades. At present, markets are pricing in 57 bps of cumulative easing by the end of 2026.

If the incoming US data – particularly labor market figures – prove robust, traders could reassess the current path of policy, leading to a more hawkish repricing that supports the US dollar. Conversely, softer readings are likely to pressure the greenback further as participants bring forward expectations for rate cuts.

British Pound: BoE Cut Largely Anticipated

On the UK side, recent macroeconomic releases have reinforced expectations for an imminent rate cut at the next Bank of England meeting. Last week’s UK GDP print was weak, following earlier signs of softness in the labor market and generally subdued CPI data.

Market pricing currently implies a 91% probability of a 25 bps reduction in the Bank Rate on Thursday. With the move largely discounted, attention is expected to center on the BoE’s forward guidance and its characterization of economic risks. Traders are also factoring in 64 bps of total easing by the end of 2026, a trajectory that will be refined by incoming UK data over the months ahead.

GBPUSD Technical Picture

Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Anchored by Major Support Line

On the daily chart, GBPUSD is guided by a prominent rising trendline that continues to define the broader bullish structure. Buyers have been repeatedly defending this trendline, using it as a reference point to manage risk on the downside while pursuing further upside.

For sellers, a decisive break below this key trendline is needed to gain control. Such a move would be viewed as an opportunity to build short positions, with the 1.3200 handle emerging as the next notable downside objective.

4-Hour Timeframe: Trendline Support and Upside Objectives

The 4-hour chart offers a clearer view of how the major ascending trendline has consistently provided support to the bullish camp. As long as the pair remains above this line, the bias favors continued strength.

The natural upside target within this structure is the important daily swing level at 1.3470. If price reaches this area, sellers are likely to re-engage, placing risk just above the level and positioning for a potential reversal back toward the trendline in anticipation of a breakout to the downside. Buyers, in contrast, will look for a sustained break above 1.3470 to validate further gains and extend the move into fresh highs.

1-Hour Timeframe: Short-Term Levels Around 1.34

On the 1-hour chart, a key swing area has formed around the 1.34 handle. This zone is expected to attract selling interest, with bears likely to define risk above it and aim for a move back down to the main trendline, again with an eye on a possible downside break.

Bullish participants will be watching for a clean break above 1.34, which would open the door for a continuation of the rally toward the 1.3470 level. The red lines on the intraday chart mark the average daily range for the current session, framing near-term volatility expectations.

Key GBPUSD Technical Levels

Timeframe	Key Level / Structure	Buyer Focus	Seller Focus
Daily	Major upward trendline; 1.3200 handle	Defend trendline to target new highs	Break of trendline to target 1.3200
4-hour	Trendline support; 1.3470 swing level	Hold above trendline and aim for 1.3470; seek break above 1.3470	Sell into 1.3470 with risk above; aim for move back to trendline
1-hour	1.34 swing area; 1.3470 target	Look for break above 1.34 toward 1.3470	Sell near 1.34 with risk above; target retest of trendline

Event Calendar: Data and Central Bank Decisions Ahead

A dense schedule of macro events is set to shape GBPUSD price action over the coming days:

Tomorrow: UK employment report and US NFP
Wednesday: UK CPI report
Thursday: BoE rate decision and US CPI data
Friday: UK Retail Sales

These releases – particularly the BoE decision, US NFP, and US CPI – are expected to be decisive in determining whether GBPUSD extends its current uptrend or reverses from key resistance levels.