Magnum Ice Cream Co. Begins Life as Standalone Stock With Mixed Outlook From J.P. Morgan

Key Moments

Debut as Independent Company and Initial Rating

The Magnum Ice Cream Company formally began trading as an independent, publicly listed entity following its separation from Unilever. As the new stock entered the market, J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with a “neutral” rating and set a price target of €14 for December 2027. The shares finished at €12.84 on December 8, 2025.

Earnings Outlook and Transition Headwinds

Analysts at J.P. Morgan described Magnum Ice Cream Co. as offering a medium- to long-term earnings growth profile, while cautioning that the transition to a standalone structure is likely to pressure results during 2025 and 2026. The firm expects cost headwinds linked to technology and services transition agreements, as well as the consolidation of operations in India, to weigh on near-term profitability.

J.P. Morgan forecasts earnings per share to grow at a 6% compound annual rate between 2025 and 2029, supported by what they describe as a global ice cream market that has historically expanded at 3% to 4% annually.

Sales Growth and Margin Projections

The brokerage anticipates that Magnum Ice Cream Co. will deliver within its stated guidance of 3% to 5% like-for-like sales growth and an annual EBITDA margin expansion of 40 to 60 basis points over the 2026-2030 period.

In the nearer term, J.P. Morgan projects EBITDA margins of 16.4% in 2025, which would represent a decline of 50 basis points from 2024. For 2026, the margin is expected to rise to 16.8%, implying a 40-basis-point improvement from 2025.

Revenue Trends and Demand Risks

On the top line, J.P. Morgan expects 5% like-for-like revenue growth in 2025, followed by a slowdown to 2.9% in 2026. The firm attributes the anticipated deceleration to softer pricing, more challenging year-on-year comparisons, and weaker consumer conditions.

The analysts also highlight potential pressure on demand arising from broader use of GLP-1 weight-loss treatments, which could have implications for consumption patterns.

Valuation and Peer Comparison

Based on J.P. Morgan’s estimates, Magnum Ice Cream Co. is trading at 11.3 times projected 2027 earnings and at 7.4 times 2027 EV/EBITDA. The firm characterizes these multiples as broadly aligned with those of European food and beverage peers.

According to the brokerage, the current valuation reflects a business still in the process of demonstrating its performance as a standalone listed company, with exposure concentrated in a single product category and subject to seasonal swings in demand.

Margin Upside Versus Rival and Efficiency Targets

J.P. Morgan sees substantial longer-term margin upside if Magnum Ice Cream Co. can close the profitability gap with competitor Froneri, particularly through improvements in supply-chain productivity. The analysts point to €500 million in targeted gross efficiencies as a key lever.

They note that Froneri’s EBITDA margin increased from 12.7% in 2017 to 21.5% in 2024, while The Magnum Ice Cream Company recorded an EBITDA margin of 16.9% in 2024.

Price Target Framework

The December 2027 price objective of €14 is derived from a discounted cash flow analysis. J.P. Morgan states that this valuation is built on assumptions including a 1.5% terminal growth rate and a 10% weighted average cost of capital.