Key Moments
- Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures were modestly higher or little changed after all three indexes logged gains in seven of the past eight sessions.
- November ADP data showed private payrolls fell by 32,000 versus expectations for a 40,000 increase, reinforcing market expectations for a Fed rate cut next week.
- Bitcoin traded around $93,000, Treasury yields inched higher, and WTI crude, gold, and the U.S. dollar index all saw modest moves.
Equity Futures Firm After Extended Rally
U.S. stock futures were slightly higher Thursday following another day of broad gains, as investors continued to price in a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut at its upcoming policy meeting.
Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were up about 0.1%, 0.1%, and less than 0.1%, respectively. On Wednesday, the underlying indexes advanced 0.9%, 0.3%, and 0.2%, with the Dow climbing by more than 400 points. All three benchmarks have now risen in seven of the past eight trading sessions.
Both the Dow and S&P 500 entered Thursday within 1% of their all-time closing highs, while the Nasdaq was about 2% below its own record close.
Soft Jobs Data Fuels Fed Easing Expectations
Traders intensified expectations for monetary easing after the latest private-sector employment figures signaled unexpected weakness. The November ADP report showed that private payrolls declined by 32,000, contrasting with forecasts for a 40,000 increase. This was the final monthly jobs data point available to Federal Reserve officials ahead of their interest-rate decision next week.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets were assigning nearly a 90% probability that the Fed will implement a quarter-percentage-point rate cut. Investors were also focused on upcoming PCE inflation data expected tomorrow.
Moves in Bitcoin, Bonds, Dollar, Oil, and Gold
Bitcoin traded around $93,000, little changed on the session but notably higher following a sharp selloff Monday, when it posted its worst one-day performance since March and closed below $85,500.
In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked up to 4.08% from 4.06% at Wednesday’s close. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, edged down to 98.80.
In commodities, WTI crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, rose 0.6% to $59.30 per barrel. Gold futures slipped to $4,225 per ounce.
Corporate Highlights: Earnings and Single-Stock Moves
In premarket trading, Salesforce (CRM) shares gained 2% after the company reported quarterly earnings late Wednesday that exceeded expectations and raised its guidance, supported by momentum in its data products and artificial intelligence offerings.
Other notable post-earnings stock moves included:
| Company | Symbol | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| UiPath | PATH | +7.5% | Post-earnings reaction |
| Dollar General | DG | +6% | Post-earnings reaction |
| Hormel | HRL | +4% | Post-earnings reaction |
| Five Below | FIVE | +3.5% | Post-earnings reaction |
| Snowflake | SNOW | -9% | Post-earnings reaction |
| Kroger | KR | -3% | Post-earnings reaction |
Elsewhere in large-cap technology, shares of Meta Platforms (META) traded modestly higher after the European Union announced the launch of an antitrust investigation into the company’s new WhatsApp AI policy. Among the other so-called Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech names, most were slightly higher, with Apple (AAPL) the main exception as its stock moved lower.
Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Track Record Territory
The latest advances have put the major U.S. equity indexes on the verge of new milestones. Since the close on Nov. 20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have climbed 4.7% and 4.8%, respectively, bringing both benchmarks within 1% of their all-time closing highs.
| Index | Level Entering Thursday | Record Closing High | Record Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 47882.90 | 48254.82 | Nov. 12 |
| S&P 500 | 6849.72 | 6890.89 | Oct. 28 |
| Nasdaq | About 2% below record | 23958.47 | Oct. 29 |
The tech-heavy Nasdaq started the day roughly 2% under its peak closing level of 23958.47, which was reached on Oct. 29.
Prediction Markets Gain Mainstream Traction
Prediction markets were becoming increasingly visible to the broader public as new partnerships and capital flowed into the space.
Kalshi recently revealed a collaboration with CNN that involves integrating Kalshi’s prediction market data across the network’s programming. Some segments already feature a scrolling banner that displays odds for event contracts traded on the platform, and the announcement suggested there could be additional applications ahead.
Interest in prediction markets surged after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, when traders on Polymarket produced outcome probabilities that were seen as more accurate than many traditional polls. That development drew a wave of new entrants, including Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Trump Media (DJT), and attracted fresh investment capital.
Competitive dynamics are intensifying. Kalshi has signed agreements with Google Finance, the National Hockey League, and Robinhood, the last of which plans to launch its own exchange. Polymarket is scheduled to return to the U.S. and has secured backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange. FanDuel has partnered with CME Group (CME) to introduce a platform this month.
Significant capital is in play. “The time has finally come for prediction markets to achieve their full potential and we are intent on making that happen,” Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour said in a social media post on Tuesday. Mansour’s comments followed news that the company had raised $1 billion in new financing at an $11 billion valuation.
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