Key Moments
- The Dutch TTF benchmark slid below €28/MWh on Tuesday, its lowest level since April 2024, despite an early and cold European winter.
- U.S. LNG cargoes have supplied about 56% of Europe’s LNG imports this year, sharply reducing the TTF-Henry Hub price spread to $4.8/MMBtu.
- Goldman Sachs projects TTF could fall to €12/MWh by 2028-2029, with Henry Hub potentially dropping to $2.70/MMBtu before a possible post-2030 rebound.
European Gas Prices Slide Despite Cold Weather
European natural gas benchmarks have retreated sharply in recent days, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) price slipping below €28 per megawatt hour on Tuesday, a level last seen in April 2024.
This price weakness has emerged even as much of continental Europe experiences a relatively early and cold start to winter. Since January, European gas prices are down more than 45%, and have dropped over 90% from the record peaks reached during the 2022 energy crisis.
The decline appears counter to seasonal expectations. As of November 30, European gas inventories stood at 75% of capacity, around 10% below the five-year average. Storage conditions are even tighter in Germany, the region’s largest gas market, where storage was at 67%, more than 20% below typical seasonal levels.
U.S. LNG Exports Reshape Europe’s Supply Dynamics
The principal factor behind the recent price softness originates in the United States. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe have increased, compensating for reduced Russian flows and altering the global energy landscape.
Data from Kpler indicate that U.S. shipments accounted for roughly 56% of Europe’s LNG imports this year. With demand in Asia relatively subdued and robust U.S. export capacity in place, Europe has emerged as the primary outlet for American LNG.
This steady stream of supply has weighed on TTF prices and has significantly compressed the spread – the price difference – between European gas priced at TTF and U.S. gas priced at Henry Hub.
Sharp Compression in the TTF-Henry Hub Spread
Traditionally, natural gas at the Henry Hub pricing point in the United States trades at a discount to TTF due to ample North American production. In 2025, however, that premium has narrowed substantially.
The TTF-Henry Hub spread has contracted from about $12 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the beginning of the year to just $4.8, the tightest level since May 2021. At present, TTF is trading at just under $10/MMBtu, only about double the Henry Hub price, which averaged $5.045 this week.
For comparison, during the 2022 energy crisis, TTF soared to €350/MWh (approximately $100/MMBtu) while Henry Hub hovered near $10, resulting in a record transatlantic spread of nearly $90/MMBtu.
The current narrowing of that gap signals a broader shift in global gas trade flows. U.S. LNG has effectively become a stabilizing outlet for Europe, easing concerns over supply shortfalls and helping restore a more normal market environment. The greater the volume of U.S. LNG that can be shipped, the more downward pressure is exerted on European prices.
| Benchmark / Metric | Key Level / Change | Context |
|---|---|---|
| TTF spot price | Below €28/MWh | Lowest since April 2024 |
| European gas prices (YTD) | Down more than 45% | From levels at the start of the year |
| Drop from 2022 crisis peak | Over 90% | Versus record highs in 2022 |
| EU storage (Nov 30) | 75% full | ~10% below five-year average |
| Germany storage (Nov 30) | 67% full | More than 20% below seasonal norms |
| U.S. share of EU LNG imports | ~56% | Based on Kpler data |
| TTF-Henry Hub spread (start of 2025) | About $12/MMBtu | Before recent compression |
| TTF-Henry Hub spread (current) | $4.8/MMBtu | Lowest since May 2021 |
| Henry Hub average (this week) | $5.045/MMBtu | Compared with TTF just under $10/MMBtu |
| TTF peak in 2022 | €350/MWh (~$100/MMBtu) | During energy crisis |
| Henry Hub during 2022 peak | Near $10/MMBtu | Transatlantic spread nearly $90/MMBtu |
Goldman Sachs Outlook for Gas Prices and Storage
Analysts at Goldman Sachs anticipate that the rebalancing underway in the gas market will persist through the rest of the decade. Samantha Dart, head of commodities research at the bank, expects expanding global supply – particularly from the United States – to lift European storage levels over time and exert additional downward pressure on TTF.
The bank projects TTF at €29/MWh in 2026 and €20/MWh in 2027. By 2028-2029, Goldman Sachs sees the potential for storage congestion in Northwest Europe, which could push TTF down to around €12/MWh. At that point, the arbitrage that currently supports U.S. LNG exports to Europe could disappear, leading to cancellations of some U.S. cargoes.
Such a development would likely weigh on U.S. domestic prices as well, with Henry Hub potentially declining to $2.70/MMBtu.
Post-2030: Potential Return of LNG Tightness
Beyond 2030, Goldman Sachs envisions a possible renewed tightening in global LNG balances. The bank highlights China’s decarbonisation agenda and increased infrastructure investment across Asia as potential drivers of stronger demand.
Under that scenario, the transatlantic arbitrage could re-emerge, with Henry Hub moving back above $4 and TTF rising above €30/MWh from 2033 onward.
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