Technical Roadmap for a Potential Indian Rupee Rebound

Key Moments

Market Backdrop: Rupee Weakness and Elevated Nerves

The Indian rupee has continued its slide to new record lows, moving closer to the closely watched 90-per-dollar threshold. The move has been accompanied by weak foreign inflows, broader risk-off sentiment, and uncertainty tied to trade negotiations, all of which have added to selling pressure.

Reports say the central bank is intervening to slow the decline, yet many traders still debate whether the 90 level will be tested before year-end. Forecasts cited in the discussion point to ongoing downside risks as markets look ahead to the next interest rate announcement.

However, this analysis sets the macro narrative aside and focuses only on price action. The video and this breakdown focus on chart-based technicals to outline a potential trading setup, which viewers must assess at their own risk.

New all time low for the indian rupee against the US dollar INR 89.90 for 1 USD today. This is why most of #India saves in #gold #silver & land/real estate. We know our currency is junk. If the RBI doesn't plan to raise interest rates soon we will be touching 100 by Dec 2026. pic.twitter.com/5ojD8cjwlT

— Romik Rai (@RomikRai) December 2, 2025

Why This Approach Emphasizes Pure Technicals

The commentary argues that relying solely on news or consensus analyst views can miss important structural dynamics in price. From this perspective, hidden buyers, hedge-fund short covering, and systematic flows rarely appear in fundamental discussions, yet technical patterns can hint at them.

The forecast is framed not as a guarantee, but as a structured “heads up” based on technical setups. It also stresses that no one can predict markets with certainty and that the outlook may be wrong, even though the methods rely on simple, experience-based technical logic.

The central idea is to focus on a clear zone in the futures market and watch how price behaves there. The precise decimal level is described as less important than the range itself and the subsequent reaction once price revisits it.

Long Term Structure: Weekly Chart Trend Lines

The analysis begins on the weekly timeframe with the objective of locating significant structural areas where large market participants might step in.

Using TradingView and the magnet tool, the analysis first draws a primary trend line from one major weekly low to the next and extends it forward. The method explicitly uses a logarithmic price scale, with the explanation that long term chart geometry changes substantially without it, and that professional traders and algorithmic systems are assumed to rely on log scale for such work.

After the main trend line is in place, a second nearby line is plotted from the same origin point but anchored to another major low. Both of these long term trend lines are projected forward and are shown converging in a future region that, when viewed on the four hour chart, coincides closely with the 110 round number.

Round numbers are highlighted as critical reference points because they tend to attract both human and algorithmic activity, concentrate stop orders, and act as price magnets. The fact that two independent long term trend lines converge near 110 is presented as a key reason to pay attention to this zone.

Measured Move Alignment: Reinforcing the Target Zone

The next step in the video is to apply a classical measured move pattern. The explanation emphasizes that this is not arbitrary line copying. Instead, it is framed as a reflection of common trading behavior, where many participants and systems use standardized reward-to-risk ratios such as two to one, leading to recurring relationships in swing lengths.

In practice, the high of an initial leg is measured against its preceding low. That distance is then cloned and applied from the beginning of the corrective phase. The projected second leg, when placed in this way, is shown to end near the same 110 area identified by the two weekly trend lines.

The analysis underscores that exact precision is unnecessary; what matters is that the projection aligns with the existing technical elements. In this case, it does, bringing the measured move into agreement with the long term trend structure.

At this point, three separate technical factors are all pointing toward the same region:

• A primary long term trend line.
• A secondary long term trend line.
• The measured move projection.

Collectively, they focus attention on the 110 to 110.5 band as a potential turning point.

Defining the Reversal Band: 110 to 110.5

The forecast deliberately avoids specifying a single exact price and instead frames the area of interest as a zone. The combined height of the measured move and the intersection of the long term trend lines create a vertical band of relevance. The 110 round number is situated right within this band, forming what is described as a practical reversal region.

The zone is defined as approximately 110 to 110.5. According to the analysis, this is the area where other traders, algorithms, hedge funds, and long term strategies may have technical reasons to adjust their positions. As such, it is presented as a more robust reference than simply reacting to the current low on the chart.

Execution Framework: What Constitutes a Trigger

The video then shifts from structural mapping to what a potential trigger might look like. A key point is that price can move below the 110 to 110.5 band initially, which is characterized as a normal occurrence that can lure in additional sellers before a reversal.

What is emphasized is not the first penetration of the zone, but the subsequent price behavior:

• A dip beneath the zone is acceptable and even expected in some cases.
• The crucial moment is when price moves back into the band and then breaks upward through it on a four hour candle.

This pattern is interpreted as potential evidence that sellers have been trapped and that buyers may be taking control.

The suggested operational steps include:

• Setting an alert in TradingView for when a four hour candle crosses back up through the zone.
• Viewing a dip below, followed by re-entry and upward push through the band, as a possible signal.
• For those who choose to trade, taking partial profits at a first target (TP1) as a way to reduce risk.
• After TP1 is reached, many traders are noted as moving the stop loss to the entry point to make the position safer.

The entire process is framed as technical planning rather than a guarantee of outcome.

Risk Framing and Forecast Limitations

The analysis repeatedly reiterates that the scenario is a forecast, not a certainty. It states that nobody has a crystal ball and acknowledges that the projection might be wrong. At the same time, it argues that the tools used – trend lines, measured moves, and round numbers – are widely used instruments that frequently shape market behavior.

The central takeaway is that the zone matters more than any specific decimal reading. If the Indian rupee falls through the 110 to 110.5 area, then re-enters and breaks back above it on a four hour basis, that is presented as the moment to watch closely. This price action around the zone is described as the core of the technical INR price forecast shown in the video.