Key Moments
- USD has been under broad pressure since Fed’s Williams signaled support for a December rate cut, with odds now at 92%.
- USDCHF is trading inside a wide range, with sellers focused on the 0.7980 support and buyers eyeing a move toward 0.8170.
- Traders are watching a series of U.S. and Swiss data releases, including ISM surveys, CPI, ADP, jobless claims, and consumer sentiment.
Fundamental Overview
The U.S. dollar has been softening broadly after Fed’s Williams backed a rate reduction in December. The decline deepened last week when ADP employment data came in soft. In addition, a Bloomberg report suggested that Hassett now leads the race for the Fed Chair role, adding further pressure.
Market odds for a December cut now sit at 92%, which effectively means traders view the decision as fully priced in. With only limited data due before the next FOMC meeting, the focus now shifts to jobless claims and another round of ADP figures. So far, neither has shown meaningful improvement.
Weak readings will likely keep the dollar on the defensive. However, even stronger surprises may only spark brief recoveries. Ultimately, traders are waiting for the FOMC rate verdict and the upcoming NFP and CPI reports.
On the Swiss side, the backdrop is largely unchanged. The SNB has left rates on hold and maintained its stance from the last meeting. Officials continue to stress that the threshold for reintroducing negative rates remains high. As a result, CHF trading is primarily driven by broader risk sentiment. A Swiss CPI report is due this week, yet it is unlikely to shift policy based on the SNB’s tone.
USDCHF Daily Chart: Range-Bound Price Action
On the daily timeframe, USDCHF recently revisited the 0.81 area before retreating as the dollar weakened on increased expectations of a dovish Fed. As a result, the pair remains stuck in a broad range. This structure offers little direction and encourages traders to look at lower timeframes for clearer setups.
USDCHF 4-Hour Chart: Trendline Governs Pullback
The 4-hour chart highlights a descending trendline that is shaping the current pullback phase. Sellers are likely to use this line as a reference, placing risk just above it while targeting the 0.7980 region.
Meanwhile, buyers may wait for a clean break above the trendline before committing. If momentum shifts, they could aim for a move toward the 0.8170 resistance zone.
| Level | Role | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 0.8170 | Upside target | Buyer objective if price breaks above the 4-hour trendline |
| 0.8100 (0.81 handle) | Recent area of resistance | Zone where the pair most recently stalled before pulling back |
| 0.8025 | Minor intraday support | Level where price has repeatedly bounced on the 1-hour chart |
| 0.7980 | Key support | Primary downside target for sellers on the current pullback |
USDCHF 1-Hour Chart: Short-Term Support at 0.8025
The 1-hour timeframe shows a short-term support band near 0.8025. This level has triggered several rejections in recent sessions. Buyers may try to defend it again, placing risk just below the zone and targeting a move back toward the descending trendline on the 4-hour chart.
Sellers, by contrast, will look for a clean break beneath 0.8025 to reinforce the bearish bias and open the way for a continuation toward the 0.7980 support. The red lines on the chart mark the average daily range for the current session, framing intraday volatility expectations.
Data Watch: Key Events on the Radar
A sequence of macro releases is in focus for USDCHF traders:
- Today: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Wednesday: Swiss CPI, US ADP, US ISM Services PMI
- Thursday: US Jobless Claims
- Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Together with the high probability of a December rate cut, these data points are likely to drive short-term swings in USDCHF ahead of the FOMC decision.
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