Key Moments
- China’s leading copper smelters agreed to cut production by more than 10% in 2026 to address industry overcapacity, according to CSPT.
- Industry officials reported that roughly 2 million tonnes of planned copper smelting capacity in China has already been suspended.
- Global copper smelting capacity is projected to rise from about 26 million tonnes in 2024 to approximately 30 million tonnes by 2028, with most growth concentrated in 2025-2026.
Chinese Smelters Move to Curb Overcapacity
On Friday, the China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that major Chinese smelters will cut production by more than 10% in 2026. This move aims to ease overcapacity pressures in the sector.
Industry leaders have raised concerns about the economics of processing copper concentrate under current market conditions. Therefore, they plan to reduce smelter output. This action seeks to restore a sustainable balance between capacity and demand.
Industry Opposition to Unfavorable Treatment Charges
Chen Xuesen, Vice President of the China Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Association, highlighted strong resistance within the sector to processing copper concentrate under what he described as “free or negative treatment charges.” He stated that the industry is firmly against operating under such terms.
Chen added that China has halted about 2 million tonnes of planned smelting capacity. This underscores the scale of measures the industry is taking to manage supply.
Global Capacity Outlook and China’s Role
Data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) show that global copper smelting capacity is forecast to increase from about 26 million tonnes in 2024 to approximately 30 million tonnes by 2028. This trajectory reflects a compound annual growth rate of 3.8%.
Most of the capacity expansion will occur in 2025-2026. Moreover, China will provide a substantial share of the new additions. Currently, Chinese smelters produce more than 50% of global copper output. Thus, the country’s production decisions strongly affect the worldwide market.
| Metric | Value | Timeframe / Source |
|---|---|---|
| Planned production cut by major Chinese smelters | More than 10% | 2026, CSPT |
| Halted planned smelting capacity in China | Approximately 2 million tonnes | China Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Association |
| Global copper smelting capacity | About 26 million tonnes | 2024, ICSG |
| Projected global copper smelting capacity | Approximately 30 million tonnes | 2028, ICSG |
| Implied compound annual growth rate | 3.8% | 2024-2028, ICSG |
| China’s share of global copper smelter output | More than 50% | Current, as stated in article |
Concentration of Growth in 2025-2026
The ICSG figures indicate that most of the forecast increase in global smelting capacity is set to occur in 2025-2026, a period in which China is expected to be a key driver of new capacity. The planned output reduction in 2026 coincides with this growth. As a result, there may be tensions between expanding capacity and managing overcapacity.
With Chinese facilities already representing more than half of the world’s copper smelter output, the decisions by its major smelters and industry associations are likely to have significant implications for the structure and utilization of global capacity.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
