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Commodity Market: US Crude Oil extends gains as demand expected to exceed supply in second half of 2021

Futures on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil extended gains from the prior two trading days on Thursday, driven by expectations of a recovery in fuel demand later in 2021, most notably in the United States, Europe and China.

Market forecasters, including the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), largely project that oil demand will exceed oil supply during the second half of this year. According to a forecast by OPEC+, global oil demand will reach 99.8 million barrels per day by the end of 2021, while oil supply will be 97.5 million barrels per day.

According to forecasters, key factors behind such a re-balancing will be recovering demand in the United States due to vehicle consumption during the summer as well as rising fuel needs in China and the United Kingdom.

“The U.S. driving season is a period that sees higher‑than‑normal fuel consumption. UK traffic is now sitting above pre‑pandemic levels,” Vivek Dhar, commodities analyst at CBA, wrote in an investor note, cited by Reuters.

“We continue to see the oil demand recovery led by the U.S., Europe and China,” Dhar added.

Meanwhile, on the supply front, OPEC+ members agreed during a Tuesday meeting to proceed with plans to ease output curbs through July.

As of 8:21 GMT on Thursday WTI Crude Oil Futures were edging up 0.15% to trade at $68.93 per barrel, after earlier touching an intraday high at $69.40. The latter has been WTI Crude’s strongest price level since October 23rd 2018 ($69.66 per barrel). WTI Crude Oil Futures have risen 4.01% so far in June, following another 4.31% surge in May.

At the same time, Brent Oil Futures were edging up 0.21% on the day to trade at $71.34 per barrel, after earlier touching an intraday high at $71.96. The latter has been Brent Oil’s strongest price level since May 22nd 2019 ($72.02 per barrel). Brent Oil Futures have risen 2.74% so far in June, following another 4.20% surge in May.

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – WTI Crude Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $68.54
R1 – $69.29
R2 – $69.76
R3 – $70.51
R4 – $71.27

S1 – $68.07
S2 – $67.32
S3 – $66.85
S4 – $66.39

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – Brent Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $71.01
R1 – $71.64
R2 – $72.09
R3 – $72.72
R4 – $73.35

S1 – $70.56
S2 – $69.93
S3 – $69.48
S4 – $69.03

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