Commodity Market: US Crude Oil set for second week of gains, but revised down oil demand forecasts limit upside

Futures on US West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil fell on Friday, but were still headed for a second weekly gain after the latest government data showed US crude oil stocks had dropped more than anticipated last week.

On the other hand, two prominent forecasters cut their 2020 oil demand projections, which pared weekly gains for both oil contracts.

“Although both contracts continue to consolidate at the upper end of their two-month trading ranges, they lack the momentum to stage meaningful rallies at this stage,” Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said.

The official government report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories had dropped for a third consecutive week, by 4.512 million barrels during the week ended August 7th, while gasoline stockpiles decreased by 0.722 million barrels.

At the same time, US distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, surprisingly dropped by 2.3 million barrels last week, following three straight weeks of increases.

The data added to optimism over demand recovery, while supporting oil markets.

Still, however, the International Energy Agency has revised down its 2020 oil demand projection, as it forecasts an 8.1 million-barrel-per-day decrease in global oil consumption as a result of lower demand for air travel amid COVID-19 pandemic.

Additionally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also said this week it now expected a 9.06 million-barrel-per-day decrease in global oil demand for 2020. It compares with a previous forecast in July, pointing to a drop by 8.95 million barrels per day.

As of 9:23 GMT on Friday WTI Crude Oil Futures were losing 1.23% to trade at $41.82 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $41.79-$42.55. WTI Crude Futures rose 1.54% in July, which marked their third straight month of gains. US Oil has risen 0.78% so far this week.

Brent Oil Futures were losing 1.11% on the day to trade at $44.54 per barrel, while moving within a daily range of $44.50-$45.21. Brent Oil Futures rose 4.86% in July, which marked their fourth consecutive month of advance. UK Oil has erased earlier gains for the week, now being down 0.18%.

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – WTI Crude Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $42.42
R1 – $42.74
R2 – $43.13
R3 – $43.45
R4 – $43.76

S1 – $42.03
S2 – $41.71
S3 – $41.32
S4 – $40.92

Daily Pivot Levels (traditional method of calculation) – Brent Oil Futures

Central Pivot – $45.15
R1 – $45.45
R2 – $45.87
R3 – $46.17
R4 – $46.48

S1 – $44.73
S2 – $44.43
S3 – $44.01
S4 – $43.60