Yesterday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.3319-1.3443. The pair closed at 1.3341, retreating 0.73% compared to Tuesdays close. It has been the 180th drop in the past 333 trading days and also the steepest one since August 4th. The daily high has been an almost exact test of the high from September 6th. The major pair has pared its advance to 1.54% so far during the current month, after losing 0.72% in August.
At 7:31 GMT today GBP/USD was inching up 0.07% on the day to trade at 1.3350. The pair touched a daily high at 1.3361 during the mid phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 1.3329 during late Asian trade.
On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on September 2nd, probably rose to 265 000, according to market consensus, from 263 000 in the preceding week.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 263 000, marking a decrease by 1 000 compared to the preceding week’s unrevised average. It has been the lowest level in three weeks.
The business week, which ended on August 26th, has been the 78th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which suggested a healthy labor market. It has been the longest streak since 1970.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or increased further, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 153 000 during the business week ended on August 26th, according to the median forecast by experts, from 2 159 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 14 000 compared to the unrevised number of claims reported in the week ended on August 12th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The US Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.
Bond Yield Spread
The yield on UK 2-year government bonds went as high as 0.120% on September 7th, after which it closed at 0.116% to add 2.1 basis points (0.021 percentage point) compared to September 6th.
Meanwhile, the yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.742% on September 7th, after which it fell to 0.738% at the close to add 0.008 percentage point compared to September 6th.
The spread between 2-year US and 2-year UK bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, narrowed to 0.622% on September 7th from 0.635% on September 6th. The September 7th yield spread has been the lowest one since August 23rd, when the difference was 0.619%.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily levels of importance for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.3352
R2 – 1.3364
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – 1.3375
R4 (Long Breakout) – 1.3409
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.3449
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.3465
S1 – 1.3330
S2 – 1.3318
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – 1.3307
S4 (Short Breakout) – 1.3273
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – 1.3233
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – 1.3217
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3236
R1 – 1.3412
R2 – 1.3531
R3 – 1.3707
R4 – 1.3883
S1 – 1.3117
S2 – 1.2941
S3 – 1.2822
S4 – 1.2703
In monthly terms, for GBP/USD we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – 1.3126
R1 – 1.3387
R2 – 1.3634
R3 – 1.3895
R4 – 1.4155
S1 – 1.2879
S2 – 1.2618
S3 – 1.2371
S4 – 1.2123
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