Friday’s trade (in GMT terms) saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7646-0.7726. The pair closed at 0.7650, losing 0.64% compared to Thursdays close. It has been the 10th drop in the past 22 trading days, a second consecutive one and also the steepest one since August 1st. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 0.41% to its value during the current week. It has been the 19th gain in the past 32 weeks and also a third consecutive one. The major pair has gone up 0.64% so far during the current month, following a 1.96% advance in July.
On Monday (August 15th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United States
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
The New York Empire State Manufacturing Index probably increased to a reading of 2.00 in August, according to the median forecast by experts, from 0.55 in the prior month. If so, this would be the third straight month, when the gauge inhabited positive territory.
In July, the gauges for new orders (-1.82 down from 10.9 in the preceding month) and shipments (0.7 down from 9.32 in the prior month) dropped, the sub-index for inventories stood into negative territory (-8.8, up from -15.31 in June), while the sub-index for labor market conditions fell below the key 0.00 level, reaching -4.4. Respondents in the survey were less optimistic in regard to the six-month outlook, while their capital spending plans remained without change.
Index readings above 0.00 are indicative of improving business conditions in the region. Higher-than-anticipated index values will usually have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected to release the official reading at 12:30 GMT.
NAHB Housing Market Index
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably advanced to a reading of 60.0 in August, according to market expectations, from 59.0 in July. If so, August would be the 26th consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. In July, the sub-index of sales expectations dropped to a level of 66.0 from 69.0 in the prior month, the gauge of buyer traffic slipped to 45.0 from 46.0 in June, while the gauge of current sales conditions ticked down to 63.0 from 64.0 in June.
The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.
Correlation with other Majors
Taking into account the business week ended on August 12th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:
AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.6480, or strong)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (0.4478, or moderate)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.0761, or very weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.1593, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.2371, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (-0.4735, or moderate)
1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with NZD/USD.
2. AUD/USD moved almost independently compared to GBP/USD during the week.
3. The correlation between AUD/USD and USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY was insignificant.
Daily, Weekly and Monthly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the Monday levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 0.7657
R2 – 0.7665
R3 (Range Resistance – Sell) – 0.7672
R4 (Long Breakout) – 0.7694
R5 (Breakout Target 1) – 0.7720
R6 (Breakout Target 2) – 0.7730
S1 – 0.7643
S2 – 0.7635
S3 (Range Support – Buy) – 0.7628
S4 (Short Breakout) – 0.7606
S5 (Breakout Target 1) – 0.7580
S6 (Breakout Target 2) – 0.7570
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly levels of importance for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 0.7669
R1 – 0.7741
R2 – 0.7832
R3 – 0.7904
R4 – 0.7976
S1 – 0.7578
S2 – 0.7506
S3 – 0.7415
S4 – 0.7324
In monthly terms, for AUD/USD we have the following pivots:
Central Pivot Point – 0.7562
R1 – 0.7717
R2 – 0.7832
R3 – 0.7987
R4 – 0.8141
S1 – 0.7447
S2 – 0.7292
S3 – 0.7177
S4 – 0.7061
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