Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/USD within the range of 1.4501-1.4601. The pair closed at 1.4514, shedding 0.21% compared to Tuesdays close. It has been the 31st drop in the past 54 trading days. The major pair has edged up 0.28% so far in June, following a 0.92% drop in the prior month.
At 6:32 GMT today GBP/USD was inching up 0.01% on the day to trade at 1.4516. The pair touched a daily high at 1.4526 at 6:17 GMT, overshooting the daily R1 level, and a daily low at 1.4491 during the late phase of the Asian trading session.
On Thursday GBP/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
United Kingdom
Balance of Trade
The deficit on United Kingdom’s total trade balance probably remained steady at GBP 11.200 billion in April, according to market expectations. If so, this would be the lowest deficit since December 2015, when a revised up gap of GBP 10.450 billion was reported.
In March, total exports expanded 1.2% to GBP 42.6 billion, following a 0.8% surge in the preceding month. March performance was mainly attributed to a GBP 0.6 billion increase in shipments of unspecified goods and a GBP 0.2 billion increase in shipments of aircraft. On the other hand, exports of chemicals registered a GBP 0.5 billion drop in March, according to the report by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Total imports edged up 0.1% to reach GBP 46.4 billion during the same period, rebounding after a 1.1% drop in February. March performance was mainly attributed to a GBP 0.4 billion surge in oil purchases and a GBP 0.2 billion increase in imports of aircraft. On the other hand, imports of chemicals went down GBP 0.3 billion in March.
In case the UK trade deficit narrowed in April, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the Pound, because of positive implications regarding UK economic growth. The Office for National Statistics will publish the official trade data at 8:30 GMT.
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on June 3rd, probably rose to 270 000, according to market consensus, from 267 000 in the preceding week. The latter has been the lowest number of claims since the business week ended on April 29th, when an unrevised level of 257 000 was reported.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 276 750, marking a decrease by 1 750 compared to the preceding weeks unrevised average.
The business week, which ended on May 27th has been the 65th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which suggested a healthy labor market. It has been the longest streak in 43 years.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or increased further, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably dropped to the seasonally adjusted 2 171 000 during the business week ended on May 27th, according to the median forecast by experts, from 2 172 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented an increase by 12 000 compared to the revised down number of claims reported in the week ended on May 13th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The US Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.4523
R2 – 1.4532
R3 (range resistance) – 1.4542
R4 (range breakout) – 1.4569
S1 – 1.4505
S2 – 1.4496
S3 (range support) – 1.4487
S4 (range breakout) – 1.4459
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for GBP/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.4543
R1 – 1.4701
R2 – 1.4883
R3 – 1.5041
S1 – 1.4361
S2 – 1.4203
S3 – 1.4021
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