Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Friday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2911-1.3108. The pair closed at 1.2934, plummeting 1.24% on a daily basis. It has been the 53rd drop in the past 109 trading days and also the steepest one since March 16th, when the pair fell 1.92%. In weekly terms, USD/CAD lost 0.65% of its value during the past week. It has been the 16th drop in the past 22 weeks and also a second consecutive one. The major pair has gone down 1.13% so far in June, following a 4.31% surge in the prior month.

At 8:10 GMT today USD/CAD was inching down 0.03% on the day to trade at 1.2954. The pair touched a daily high at 1.2983 during the late phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily range resistance level (R3), and a daily low at 1.2939 at 7:54 GMT.

Meanwhile, crude oil futures marked their 55th drop out of the past 120 trading days on June 3rd. Oil for July delivery went down as low as $48.33 per barrel and closed at $48.62, tumbling 1.12% compared to Thursday’s close. As of 8:15 GMT today the commodity was gaining 0.78% to trade at $49.15, after going up as high as $49.27 per barrel earlier.

On Monday USD/CAD trading may be influenced by the following event as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Fed’s Yellen Statement

At 16:00 GMT the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, is expected to take a statement. Any remarks on monetary policy or US macroeconomic outlook, especially after the disappointing employment growth numbers last month, would certainly heighten USD volatility.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the business week ended on June 3rd and the daily closing levels of the major currency pairs, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/CAD to USD/CHF (0.9134, or very strong)
USD/CAD to USD/JPY (0.7367, or strong)
USD/CAD to GBP/USD (-0.4478, or moderate)
USD/CAD to NZD/USD (-0.7056, or strong)
USD/CAD to AUD/USD (-0.7929, or strong)
USD/CAD to EUR/USD (-0.9394, or very strong)

1. During the examined period USD/CAD moved strongly in the opposite direction compared to NZD/USD and AUD/USD.

2. USD/CAD moved strongly in one and the same direction with USD/JPY during the past week.

3. USD/CAD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with USD/CHF during the period in question, while moving almost equally in the opposite direction compared to EUR/USD.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.2952
R2 – 1.2970
R3 (range resistance) – 1.2988
R4 (range breakout) – 1.3042

S1 – 1.2916
S2 – 1.2898
S3 (range support) – 1.2880
S4 (range breakout) – 1.2826

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/CAD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.2997
R1 – 1.3082
R2 – 1.3231
R3 – 1.3316

S1 – 1.2848
S2 – 1.2763
S3 – 1.2614