Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for March 21st

Friday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7591-0.7684. The pair closed at 0.7603, losing 0.63% on a daily basis. It has been the 9th drop in the past 21 trading days. The daily high has been the highest level since July 1st 2015, when a high of 0.7739 was registered. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 0.50% to its value during the current week. It has been the 7th gain in the past 11 weeks and also a third consecutive one. AUD/USD has advanced 6.52% so far during the current month, following a 0.80% gain in February.

On Monday (March 21st) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Existing Home Sales

The index of existing home sales in the United States probably dropped 1.3% to a level of 5.40 million in February compared to January, according to the median estimate by experts. In January sales were 0.4% higher from a month ago to reach 5.47 million, or the highest level since July 2015, when a figure of 5.48 million was reported. Sales of new single-family houses rose 1% during the month, while sales of condos were down 4.7%. The median sales price dropped 3.2% in January.

In case the index decreased at a steeper monthly rate than anticipated, this would have a moderate bearish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is to release the official figure at 14:00 GMT.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on March 18th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.9997, or very strong)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (0.9502, or very strong)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.9311, or very strong)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.8688, or very strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (-0.9504, or very strong)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (-0.9709, or very strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved almost equally in one and the same direction with GBP/USD, EUR/USD and NZD/USD. This relationship has been the most pronounced between AUD/USD and NZD/USD, as the correlation between these two pairs was almost perfect.

2. AUD/USD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD during the week. This relationship has been the most pronounced between AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7626
R1 – 0.7661
R2 – 0.7719
R3 – 0.7754

S1 – 0.7568
S2 – 0.7533
S3 – 0.7475

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7567
R1 – 0.7720
R2 – 0.7838
R3 – 0.7991

S1 – 0.7449
S2 – 0.7296
S3 – 0.7178