Friday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1212-1.1335. The pair closed at 1.1260, falling 0.57% on a daily basis. It has been the 14th drop in the past 30 trading days and also the sharpest one since January 29th, when the pair went down 0.93%. In weekly terms, EUR/USD appreciated 0.91% last week, marking its fourth gain in the past six weeks and also a third consecutive one. The pair has risen 3.42% so far during the current month, following a 0.21% dip in January.
At 7:30 GMT today EUR/USD was edging down 0.15% for the day to trade at 1.1207. The pair touched a daily low at 1.1206 at 7:23 GMT, undershooting the lower range breakout level (S4), and a daily high at 1.1252 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.
On Monday EUR/USD trading may be influenced by the following events and macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
Euro area
Balance of Trade
At 10:00 GMT Eurostat is to report on the regions balance of trade for December. In November the seasonally adjusted trade surplus was at the amount of EUR 22.7 billion, or the largest figure since April 2015, expanding from a surplus of EUR 19.9 billion in October.
The regions trade surplus, without a seasonal adjustment, was reported to have shrunk to EUR 23.6 billion in November, or the lowest figure since September 2015, when a surplus of EUR 20.5 billion was reported.
Total exports from the Euro area were up 6% to EUR 173.5 billion in November compared to November 2014, while total imports rose 5% to reach EUR 149.9 billion in November compared to the same month a year earlier. During the period January to November 2015, exports of goods expanded 5% year-on-year to reach EUR 1 873.0 billion. At the same time, imports of goods went up 2% to EUR 1 650.9 billion during the same period. This resulted in a surplus of EUR 222.1 billion, compared to a EUR 160.7 billion figure reported during the period January to November 2014.
Euro zones balance of trade produces regular surpluses mainly due to the high export of manufactured goods, such as machinery and vehicles. At the same time, the region is a net importer of energy and raw materials. Member states such as Germany, Italy, France and Netherlands play a key role in total trade.
In case the seasonally adjusted trade surplus continued to expand in December, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the single currency, because of the positive implications regarding the regions economic growth.
ECB President Draghis statement
At 14:00 GMT the European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi, is expected to take a statement. Moderate-to-high volatility of the currency pairs containing the euro is usually present during such events.
United States
The President’s Day
Every third Monday in February is referred to as the President’s Day federal holiday. This day commemorates all the past presidents of the United States and honors the life and deeds of George Washington, the first US President. Banks are to remain closed.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 1.1271
R2 – 1.1283
R3 (range resistance) – 1.1295
R4 (range breakout) – 1.1328
S1 – 1.1249
S2 – 1.1237
S3 (range support) – 1.1226
S4 (range breakout) – 1.1192
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 1.1241
R1 – 1.1397
R2 – 1.1535
R3 – 1.1691
S1 – 1.1103
S2 – 1.0947
S3 – 1.0809
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
