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Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1158-1.1311. The pair closed at 1.1284, inching down 0.08% on a daily basis. It has been the 13th drop in the past 28 trading days. The daily low has been the lowest level since February 8th, when a low of 1.1084 was registered.

At 7:22 GMT today EUR/USD was inching up 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.1288. The pair touched a daily low at 1.1274 during the early phase of the Asian trading session, undershooting the daily S1 level, and a daily high at 1.1320 during early Asian trade as well.

On Thursday EUR/USD trading may be influenced by the following events and macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Fundamentals

Euro area

Eurogroup Meeting

Today the Member states of the Eurogroup are expected to hold a meeting. Such an event is usually attended by the Eurogroup President, the Finance Minister of every Member State within the common currency area, the Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the President of the European Central Bank.

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on February 5th, probably fell to 281 000, according to market expectations, from 285 000 reported in the preceding week.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 284 750, marking an increase by 2 000 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.

The business week, which ended on January 29th has been the 47th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or fell further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 250 000 during the business week ended on January 22nd from 2 255 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented a decrease by 18 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 15th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.1298
R2 – 1.1312
R3 (range resistance) – 1.1326
R4 (range breakout) – 1.1368

S1 – 1.1270
S2 – 1.1256
S3 (range support) – 1.1242
S4 (range breakout) – 1.1200

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.1072
R1 – 1.1333
R2 – 1.1506
R3 – 1.1767

S1 – 1.0899
S2 – 1.0638
S3 – 1.0465

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