Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7034-0.7127. The pair closed at 0.7103, rising 0.46% on a daily basis. It has been the 13th gain in the past 27 trading days and also the steepest one since February 4th, when the pair added 0.46% as well. The daily high has been the highest level since February 8th, when a high of 0.7132 was registered.
At 10:09 GMT today AUD/USD was losing 0.85% on the day to trade at 0.7042. The pair touched a daily low at 0.6985 at 8:40 GMT, overcoming the lower range breakout level (S4), and a daily high at 0.7151 during the early hours of the Asian trading session.
On Thursday AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following events and macroeconomic reports as listed below.
Fundamentals
Australia
RBA Governor Stevens statement
At 23:30 GMT Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to take a statement on the current macroeconomic state and the exchange rate of the Australian dollar. Moderate-to-high volatility of the currency pairs containing the Aussie is usually present during such events.
United States
Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims
The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on February 5th, probably fell to 281 000, according to market expectations, from 285 000 reported in the preceding week.
The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 284 750, marking an increase by 2 000 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.
The business week, which ended on January 29th has been the 47th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold, which implied a healthy labor market.
Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or fell further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.
The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to the seasonally adjusted 2 250 000 during the business week ended on January 22nd from 2 255 000 in the preceding week. The latter represented a decrease by 18 000 compared to the revised up number of claims reported in the week ended on January 15th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.
The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 13:30 GMT.
Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels
By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
R1 – 0.7112
R2 – 0.7120
R3 (range resistance) – 0.7129
R4 (range breakout) – 0.7154
S1 – 0.7094
S2 – 0.7086
S3 (range support) – 0.7077
S4 (range breakout) – 0.7052
By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:
Central Pivot Point – 0.7107
R1 – 0.7216
R2 – 0.7360
R3 – 0.7469
S1 – 0.6963
S2 – 0.6854
S3 – 0.6710
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