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Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0673-1.0763. The pair closed at 1.0723, losing 0.27% on a daily basis. The daily low has been the lowest level since April 23rd, when a low of 1.0665 was registered.

At 7:19 GMT today EUR/USD was gaining 0.13% for the day to trade at 1.0738. The pair touched a daily high at 1.0774 at 3:55 GMT, overshooting the upper range breakout level (R4).

Today EUR/USD trading may be influenced by the only relevant event listed below.

Fundamentals

Euro area

ECB Draghi statement

At 13:15 GMT European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is expected to take a statement. Moderate-to-high volatility of the currency pairs containing the euro is usually present during such events.

United States

Veterans Day

Today is the Veterans Day public holiday in the United States, which honors all individuals who have served in the US military. American citizens observe this day by attending ceremonies and parades, where veterans are allowed to talk about their time in the service and to receive gratitude for their sacrifice. Banks in the country are to remain closed.

Bond Yield Spread

The yield on German 2-year government bonds went as high as -0.323% on November 10th, after which it slid to -0.345% at the close to lose 3.2 basis points (0.032 percentage point) in comparison with November 9th. It has been the second consecutive trading day of decline.

The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.891% on November 10th, after which it closed at 0.874% to lose 1.6 basis points (0.016 percentage point) compared to November 9th. It has been the first drop in the past seven trading days.

The spread between 2-year US and 2-year German bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, widened to 1.219% on November 10th from 1.203% on November 9th. The November 10th yield spread has been the largest one in more than seven months.

Meanwhile, the yield on German 10-year government bonds soared as high as 0.679% on November 10th, after which it slid to 0.626% at the close to lose 4.4 basis points (0.044 percentage point) compared to November 9th. It has been the second consecutive trading day of decline.

The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.353% on November 10th, after which it slipped to 2.336% at the close to lose 1.3 basis points (0.013 percentage point) compared to November 9th. It has been the first drop in the past seven trading days.

The spread between 10-year US and 10-year German bond yields widened to 1.710% on November 10th from 1.679% on November 9th. The November 10th yield difference has been the largest one in at least seven months.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.0731
R2 – 1.0740
R3 (range resistance) – 1.0748
R4 (range breakout) – 1.0773

S1 – 1.0715
S2 – 1.0707
S3 (range support) – 1.0698
S4 (range breakout) – 1.0674

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.0834
R1 – 1.0961
R2 – 1.1182
R3 – 1.1309

S1 – 1.0613
S2 – 1.0486
S3 – 1.0265

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