Forex Market: AUD/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7237-0.7309. The pair closed at 0.7251, down 0.12% on a daily basis, while extending the loss from Friday. The daily low has been the lowest level since October 14th, when a low of 0.7195 was registered.

At 6:50 GMT today AUD/USD was gaining 0.44% for the day to trade at 0.7280. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7281 at 6:45 GMT, as it is set to test the daily R1 level at 0.7294.

Today AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the macroeconomic releases listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Housing Starts, Building Permits

The number of housing starts in the United States probably rose to 1.150 million units in September, according to market expectations, from the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.126 million during the prior month. In August starts of single-family houses were 3% lower from a month ago to reach 739 000, while starts of buildings with five units or more fell 2.3% to 381 000. Housing starts in the Northeast decreased for a third consecutive month in August, down 33.7%, followed by starts in the Midwest (down 9.8%) and starts in the West (down 3.1%).

Housing starts represent a gauge to measure residential units, on which construction has already begun every month. A start in construction is defined as the foundation laying of a building and it encompasses residential housing primarily.

The number of building permits in the country probably remained unchanged at 1.170 million in September from a month ago. In August, single-family permits were 2.8% more to reach 699 000, while authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more rose 4.3% to 440 000.

Building permits are permits, issued in order to allow excavation. An increase in the number of building permits and housing starts usually occurs a few months after mortgage rates in the country have been reduced. Authorizations are not required in all regions of the United States. Building permits, as an indicator, provide clues in regard to demand in the US housing market. In case a higher-than-anticipated figure is reported, this will have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar. The official housing data are due out at 12:30 GMT.

Fed Chair Yellens statement

At 15:00 GMT Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is expected to take a statement. Moderate-to-high volatility of the US dollar crosses is usually present during such events.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the daily pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7266
R1 – 0.7294
R2 – 0.7338
R3 – 0.7366

S1 – 0.7222
S2 – 0.7194
S3 – 0.7150

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7281
R1 – 0.7367
R2 – 0.7473
R3 – 0.7559

S1 – 0.7175
S2 – 0.7089
S3 – 0.6983