Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1130-1.1219. The pair closed at 1.1207, up 0.06% on a daily basis and marking a fourth consecutive trading day of gains. The daily rate of increase has been the most modest one since August 31st, when the cross went up a mere 0.03%.

At 6:55 GMT today EUR/USD was up 0.09% for the day to trade at 1.1218. The pair touched a daily high at 1.1245 during early Asian trade. It was a test of the September 3rd high.

Today the cross may be influenced by a number of macroeconomic reports as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Initial, Continuing Jobless Claims

The number of people in the United States, who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the business week ended on September 4th, probably fell to 275 000, according to market expectations, from 282 000 in the prior week. The latter has been the largest number of claims since the business week ended on July 3rd, when 297 000 claims were reported.

The 4-week moving average, an indicator lacking seasonal effects, was 275 500, marking an increase of 3 250 compared to the preceding weeks revised down average.

The business week, which ended on August 28th has been the 26th consecutive week, when jobless claims stood below the 300 000 threshold. This continues to support the case labor market conditions in the country follow the path of improvement.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims met expectations or dropped further, this would have a moderate bullish effect on the US dollar.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably decreased to the seasonally adjusted 2 250 000 during the business week ended on August 28th from 2 257 000 in the prior week. The latter represented a decrease by 9 000 compared to the revised down number of claims, reported in the business week ended on August 15th. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago.

The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Bond Yield Spread

The yield on German 2-year government bonds went as high as -0.213% on September 9th, or matching the high from the prior two trading days, after which it slid to -0.221% at the close to lose 0.002 percentage point on a daily basis. It has been the first drop in the past three trading days.

The yield on US 2-year government bonds climbed as high as 0.765% on September 9th, or the highest level since June 17th (0.766%), after which it fell to 0.737% at the close to remain unchanged for the day.

The spread between 2-year US and 2-year German bond yields, which reflects the flow of funds in a short term, widened to 0.958% on September 9th from 0.956% during the prior day. The September 9th has been the most notable spread since August 18th, when the difference was 0.974%.

Meanwhile, the yield on German 10-year government bonds soared as high as 0.722% on September 9th, or the highest level since September 3rd (0.801%), after which it slid to 0.704% at the close to appreciate 2.3 basis points (0.023 percentage point) compared to September 8th, while marking a third straight trading day of gains.

The yield on US 10-year government bonds climbed as high as 2.254% on September 9th, or the highest level since August 7th (2.254%), after which it slipped to 2.185% at the close to lose 0.001 percentage point on a daily basis. It has been the first drop in the past three trading days.

The spread between 10-year US and 10-year German bond yields narrowed to 1.481% on September 9th from 1.505% during the prior day. The September 9th yield difference has been the lowest one since September 7th, when the spread was 1.476%.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

R1 – 1.1215
R2 – 1.1223
R3 (range resistance – green on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1231
R4 (range breakout – red on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1256

S1 – 1.1199
S2 – 1.1191
S3 (range support – green on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1183
S4 (range breakout – red on the 30-minute chart) – 1.1158

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for EUR/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 1.1188
R1 – 1.1291
R2 – 1.1434
R3 – 1.1537

S1 – 1.1045
S2 – 1.0942
S3 – 1.0799