Gold trading outlook: futures steady ahead of Yellen testimony

Gold swung in a narrow range on Wednesday ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellens semiannual testimony before US Congress as investors waited for clues on whether the central bank will initiate its first interest rate hike in almost a decade.

Gold futures for delivery in August were up 0.02% for the day at $1 153.7 per troy ounce at 07:14 GMT, shifting in a tight daily range of $1 155.8 – $1 152.5. The contract slid 0.16% on Tuesday to $1 153.5, extending losses for a fourth straight session.

Investors abstained from entering big positions as they awaited Ms. Yellens testimony on monetary policy to the US House of Representatives, at which she is likely to reiterate a point she made last week that it would be appropriate to begin gradually lifting borrowing costs this year. The Fed Chief underscored in a speech on Friday the US labor market’s continued weakness but said that the world’s biggest economy is expected to grow steadily for the remainder of the year.

Investors tend to turn bearish on gold at times of economic growth and rising interest rates as the precious metal yields returns only through price gains, while other instruments that pay interest, such as bonds, tend to become more attractive.

Edward Meir, analyst at INTL FCStone, said in a note, cited by CNBC: “Markets will want to know whether this years expected rate hike will be followed by a succession of other increases and how quickly these set in.”

In economic news, data yesterday showed that retail sales in the US unexpectedly contracted in June, while Mays reading received a downward revision. On Wednesday, better-than-projected GDP data from China provided some support to golds physical demand prospects, while the Asian countrys industrial production growth also came in above expectations.

The US dollar index for settlement in September was almost unchanged, up 0.01%, at 96.790 at 07:14 GMT, shifting in a daily range of 96.920 – 96.680. The US currency gauge slid 0.22% on Monday to 96.784.

Also keeping sentiment skewed to the bearish side was Greeces acceptance of its creditors demands for reforms in exchange for a third bailout that would keep the indebted country in the Eurozone.

Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest bullion-backed ETF were unchanged at 709.07 tons on Tuesday, remaining close to June 15th’s nearly seven-year low of 701.9 tons.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, August gold’s central pivot point on the Comex stands at $1 154.8. If the contract breaks its first resistance level at $1 157.8, next barrier will be at $1 162.1. In case the second key resistance is broken, the precious metal may attempt to advance to $1 165.1.

If the contract manages to breach the S1 level at $1 150.5, it will next see support at $1 147.5. With this second key support broken, movement to the downside may extend to $1 143.2.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at $1 159.4. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – $1 172.9, R2 – $1 187.9, R3 – $1 201.4. The three key support levels are: S1 – $1 144.4, S2 – $1 130.9, S3 – $1 115.9.