Forex Market: USD/MXN daily trading outlook

Yesterdays trade saw USD/MXN within the range of 15.3669-15.2403. The pair closed at 15.3573, jumping 0.10% on a daily basis and ending two days of losses.

At 6:53 GMT today USD/MXN was up 0.10% for the day to trade at 15.3755. The cross held in a daily range of 15.3557 – 15.3759.

Fundamentals

United States

The number of corporate layoffs in the US in April likely fell to 25 700, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas is expected to report. The Challenger Job Cuts indicator registered a reading of 36 600 in March, down from 50 600 in February.

The report provides monthly information on the number of corporate layoffs by industry and region and serves as a gauge for investors to assess the strength of the countrys labor market. A better-than-expected readings would provide support for the US dollar, and vice versa. The data are due out at 11:30 GMT.

Jobless claims

Meanwhile, the number of people in the United States who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended May 2nd probably increased to 280 000 from 262 000 in the previous seven days. The 4-week moving average, an indicator used to iron out week-to-week volatility, was at 283 750 last week, below the previous weeks upward-revised average.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the number of claims increased more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably rose to 2 280 000 during the week ended April 25th from 2 253 000 the previous period. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Mexico

Annualized consumer inflation in Mexico probably edged down to 3.10% in April, according to the median forecast by experts, from 3.14% in March. In monthly terms, consumer prices probably contracted 0.24% last month after jumping 0.41% in March. Core CPI, which excludes from the basket certain volatile items, likely rose 0.15%.

Key categories included in Mexican CPI are Non-food Goods (accounting for 19.7% of the total weight), Housing (18.7%) and Other Services (18.4%). Other categories include Food, Beverages and Tobacco (14.8%), Energy (9.5%), Products subsidized by the government (5.3%), Education (5.1%), Meat and Eggs (4.8%) and Fruits and Vegetables (3.7%).

Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Y Geografia is expected to release the official report at 13:00 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 15.3215. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 15.4027, it will encounter next resistance at 15.4481. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 15.5293.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 15.2761, it will next see support at 15.1949. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 15.1495.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 15.4366. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 15.7338, R2 – 15.8893, R3 – 16.1865. The three key support levels are: S1 – 15.2811, S2 – 14.9839, S3 – 14.8284.