Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0825-1.0711. The pair closed at 1.0737, losing 0.66% on a daily basis and ending four straight days of gains.

At 7:45 GMT today EUR/USD was down 0.60% for the day to trade at 1.0674. The pair held in a daily range of 1.0661 – 1.0752.

Fundamentals

Eurozone

The gauge of economic sentiment in Germany probably continued to improve in April, rising to 55.3, according to the median forecast by experts, from 54.8 in March. If so, this would be the highest index reading since February 2014, when it was reported at 55.7.

The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published on a monthly basis. The study encompasses up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts that are optimistic, and those that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Germany over the next six months. A positive value indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of pessimists. A ZEW reading of -100 suggests that all analysts are pessimistic about the current developments and expect economic conditions to deteriorate. A ZEW reading of 100 implies that all analysts are optimistic about the current situation and expect conditions to improve. A ZEW reading of 0 indicates neutrality.

The index of current assessment in Germany probably rose a sixth month in a row in April to 56.0, according to expectations, having reached 55.1 in March. If so, this would be the highest level since July 2014, when a reading of 61.8 was reported.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment index for the whole Euro zone probably gained ground for a sixth straight month in April as well, projected to hit 63.7. If so, this would be the highest level since February 2014, when the indicator came in at 68.5. In March, the index was at a level of 62.4.

In case the gauge of economic sentiment exceeded expectations, this would certainly have a positive impact on the common currency. The official data is scheduled to be released at 09:00 GMT.

United States

Redbook Research Inc. releases its Johnson Redbook Index today. This metric measures the growth in US retail sales and is based on sales data provided by around 9 000 large general merchandise retailers representing over 80% of the equivalent “official” retail sales series published by the Commerce Department. The year-over-year value of the metric was at 1.1% for the seven days through April 11th, while the month-on-month reading came in at 0.2%. Data for the week ended April 18th is due out today at 12:55 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 1.0758. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 1.0804, it will encounter next resistance at 1.0872. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 1.0918.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 1.0690, it will next see support at 1.0644. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 1.0576.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0725. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.0932, R2 – 1.1056, R3 – 1.1263. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0601, S2 – 1.0394, S3 – 1.0270.