Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading outlook

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range between 1.2648 and 1.2785, the highest since March 18th. The pair closed 0.10% higher at 1.2688, extending gains from Friday.

At 7:02 GMT today USD/CAD was down 0.15% for the day to trade at 1.2664. The pair held in a daily range of 1.2646 – 1.2694.

Fundamentals

United States

Automatic Data Processing is expected to report at 12:15 GMT that US non-farm private employers added 225 000 jobs in March, compared to 212 000 in February. If confirmed, this would be the 10th straight monthly job creation pace of above 200 000. The ADP nonfarm employment change figure is considered a proxy to the government jobs report, which is released on the first Friday of each month. The Labor Department is forecast to report on Friday that US nonfarm payrolls were at 245 000 last month, while the unemployment rate likely remained at a pre-recession low of 5.5%.

Also due today are manufacturing data for March. Markit Economics will likely report that activity in the US sector of manufacturing grew at a slightly higher pace from a month earlier, with its manufacturing PMI inching up to 55.3 from 55.1 in February, confirming a preliminary reading released on March 24th.

The more widely tracked US factory activity data, to be released by the Institute for Supply Management at 14:00 GMT, is forecast to show a continued decrease in manufacturing growth, albeit still robust. The ISM Manufacturing PMI likely slid to 52.5 last month from 52.9 in February, extending a slide that began in November.

Canada

Royal Bank of Canada will report on factory activity at 13:30 GMT. The data are expected to show a rebound to above the expansion-contraction threshold, likely near 52.8. The gauge plunged to 48.7 in February, which was a third straight monthly decline and the first dip below the key level of 50 since early 2013.

The PMI report is based on data collected from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to supply managers in over 400 industrial companies. Values of the index above the key level of 50.0 indicate overall increase in activity in the sector, while readings below 50.0 are indicative of contraction in activity. PMIs are earlier indicators of economic conditions published on a monthly basis and are available much before the publication of relevant data from government authorities. This way they provide earlier insight about economic development trends. In case activity in the sector slowed down more than expected, this would have a bearish effect on the loonie, and vice versa.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 1.2707. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 1.2766, it will encounter next resistance at 1.2844. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 1.2903.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 1.2629, it will next see support at 1.2570. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 1.2492.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2546. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2687, R2 – 1.2763, R3 – 1.2904. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2470, S2 – 1.2329, S3 – 1.2253.