Friday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0648-1.0883. The pair closed at 1.0822, gaining 1.52% on a daily basis. The cross appreciated 3.12% for the whole week, which followed four consecutive weeks of losses.
At 7:30 GMT today EUR/USD was down 0.13% for the day to trade at 1.0806. The pair touched a daily low at 1.0784 at 2:10 GMT.
Fundamentals
Euro Area
Consumer Confidence – preliminary
Confidence among consumers in the Euro area probably improved for a third consecutive month in March. The preliminary value of the consumer confidence index probably rose to -5.95 from a final value of -6.7 in February. If so, this would be the highest level of confidence since August 2007, when the indicator was reported at a final value of -4.0. The index measures consumer confidence on a scale of -100 to +100. A reading of -100 suggests a lack of confidence, zero means neutrality and a reading of +100 indicates extreme levels of confidence. The index reflects the level of optimism, which consumers have about economic development in the region. The Business and Consumer Survey is conducted by phone and includes 23 000 households in the Euro area. The questions asked stress on current economic and financial situation, savings intention and also on expected developments regarding consumer price indexes, general economic situation and major purchases of durable goods. This indicator is one of the five major components, that comprise the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).
Higher confidence usually implies greater willingness to spend, including large-ticket purchases, while consumer spending is a key factor behind economic growth. Therefore, in case the consumer confidence index improved more than anticipated, this would cause a bullish impact on the euro. The European Commission is expected to release the preliminary reading at 15:00 GMT.
United States
Existing Home Sales
The index of existing home sales in the United States probably gained 1.8% to a level of 4.90 million in February compared to a month earlier. In January compared to December existing home sales dropped 4.9% to 4.82 million, or the lowest level since April 2014, when sales amounted to 4.66 million homes.
The sample of data encompasses condos, co-ops and single-family houses.
Statistical data on existing home sales is often used along with statistical figures regarding the new home sales and pending home sales, with the major objective being to draw a conclusion how nation’s housing sector is performing, regardless of interest rates. The most active house-purchasing period in the United States is usually between the months of March through June. Therefore, in case statistical data revealed a sudden drop in the number of homes sold rather than an improvement during this period, this would be considered as a signal of weakness in the country’s housing market.
The report on existing home sales usually does not cause a real direct impact on US economy. Actually, this effect appears to be limited, due to the fact that nothing is produced with the mere sale of an existing home. In terms of economic activity, the sale of an existing house may be related only to interior design and purchases of new furniture.
In case the index increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the US dollar. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is to release the official figure at 14:00 GMT.
Pivot Points
According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0784. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0921, it will probably continue up to test 1.1019. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1156.
If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0686, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0549. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0451.
The mid-Pivot levels for Monday are as follows: M1 – 1.0500, M2 – 1.0618, M3 – 1.0735, M4 – 1.0853, M5 – 1.0970, M6 – 1.1088.
In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0770. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.1085, R2 – 1.1347, R3 – 1.1662. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0508, S2 – 1.0193, S3 – 0.9931.
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