Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/NOK within the range of 8.6205-8.7676. The pair closed at 8.7377, gaining 0.91% on a daily basis.

At 7:45 GMT today EUR/NOK was up 0.09% for the day to trade at 8.7424. The pair touched a daily high at 8.7523 at 6:40 GMT.

Fundamentals

Euro zone

Gross Domestic Product – 2nd estimate

The second GDP estimate in the Euro zone for Q3 probably confirmed the preliminary estimate of 0.8% growth, which was reported on November 14th. In Q2 regions economy expanded at an annualized rate of 0.8%, a revision up from 0.7% previously.

In quarterly terms, the second GDP estimate probably also confirmed the preliminary figure, pointing to a 0.2% growth during the third quarter, according to market expectations. In Q2 economy registered a 0.1% expansion, a revision up from a zero growth previously, due to changes in the GDP calculating methods, introduced by the Eurostat. The new estimation method, known as ESA 2010, provides a revised set of concepts, definitions, classifications and accounting rules that enable the EU Member States to produce consistent, reliable and comparable statistical descriptions of their economies. The new measure takes into account activities such as research and development spending and expenditure on weapon systems that were not included in the old method ESA 95.

According to preliminary data published on November 14th, among Euro zone member states, Greece registered the highest quarterly rate of growth in Q3 (0.7%), followed by Slovakia (0.6%), Spain (0.5%), Latvia (0.4%) and France (0.3%). Belgium, Portugal, the Netherlands, Estonia and Finland all expanded at a pace of 0.2% in the third quarter, while German economy advanced 0.1%. Italian GDP, on the other hand, shrank 0.1% in Q3 compared to Q2.

The GDP represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced by the region over a specific period of time. What is more, it is the widest indicator of economic activity in the area. The report on GDP is closely watched by traders, operating in the Foreign Exchange Market, as they will usually look for higher rates of growth as a sign that interest rates will follow the same direction. Higher interest rates will attract more investors, willing to purchase assets in the Euro area, while, at the same time, this will increase demand for the common currency. If an economy is experiencing a robust rate of growth, the benefits will eventually affect the end consumer, because of the increased likelihood of spending, while through increased consumer expenditures economy has the potential to expand even further. Therefore, in case growth in the common currency zone exceeded expectations, this would certainly provide support to the euro. Eurostat is expected to release the official GDP report at 10:00 GMT.

Norway

Manufacturing production

Manufacturing output in Norway, an indicator measuring the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of production by manufacturers, probably shrank 0.9% in October compared to September, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 2.1% drop during the preceding month. Annualized manufacturing output increased 2.1% in September, or the slowest annual rate since April, when production climbed 1.8%. Manufacturing production accounts for almost 80% of total industrial production, as the latter is a dominant segment of country’s economy. In case output contracted more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the krone. Statistics Norway will release the official figures at 9:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 8.7086. In case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.7967, it will probably continue up to test 8.8557. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.9438.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.6496, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.5615. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.5025.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 8.5320, M2 – 8.6056, M3 – 8.6791, M4 – 8.7527, M5 – 8.8262, M6 – 8.8998.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 8.6343. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 8.8678, R2 – 8.9965, R3 – 9.2300. The three key support levels are: S1 – 8.5056, S2 – 8.2721, S3 – 8.1434.