Forex Market: USD/ZAR daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/ZAR within the range of 10.9292-10.9884. The pair closed at 10.9542, gaining 0.13% on a daily basis.

At 9:26 GMT today USD/ZAR was up 0.66% for the day to trade at 11.0341. The pair broke the first and the second key daily resistance levels and touched a daily high at 11.0439.

Fundamentals

South Africa

Balance of trade

The deficit on South Africas balance of trade probably widened to ZAR 6.0 billion in October, according to expectations, from a deficit figure of ZAR 2.91 billion in September. The latter has been the smallest trade gap since June, as exports to Europe and America rose. Total exports expanded 18.2% to ZAR 90.79 billion in September compared August. Sales of precious metals and stones marked the highest increase (44.9%), followed by mineral products (24.3%). Exports to the Americas were up 26.6%, sales to Europe grew 25.2%, while those to African countries rose 16.3%. Total value of imports rose at a pace of 0.2% to ZAR 93.71 billion in September. The cumulative deficit during the current year is at the amount of ZAR 73.74 billion, compared to ZAR 63.07 billion in 2013, according to the report by the South African Revenue Service.

The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between a nation’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form the countrys Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate strength of domestic demand. In case the trade balance deficit widened more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the rand. The South African Revenue Service is expected to release the official trade data at 12:00 GMT.

Pivot Points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 10.9573. In case USD/ZAR manages to breach the first resistance level at 10.9853, it will probably continue up to test 11.0165. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 11.0445.

If USD/ZAR manages to breach the first key support at 10.9261, it will probably continue to slide and test 10.8981. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 10.8669.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 10.8825, M2 – 10.9121, M3 – 10.9417, M4 – 10.9713, M5 – 11.0009, M6 – 11.0305.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 11.0392. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 11.1734, R2 – 11.2764, R3 – 11.4106. The three key support levels are: S1 – 10.9362, S2 – 10.8020, S3 – 10.6990.