Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.2617-1.2484. The pair closed at 1.2525, losing 0.70% on a daily basis.

At 8:23 GMT today EUR/USD was down 0.28% for the day to trade at 1.2490. The pair held in a daily range between 1.2441, the lowest since August 22nd 2012, and 1.2617.

Fundamental view

Europe

Markit Economics is expected to report that manufacturing activity in the Eurozone as a whole expanded in October at a faster pace compared to a month earlier, with the respective Manufacturing PMI projected to confirm a preliminary reading of 50.7 released on October 23rd. September’s figure stood at 50.3.

Factory output in Germany is expected to have rebounded in October after the respective Manufacturing PMI fell below the level 50 threshold in September for the first time since June 2013. October’s figure is expected to register at 51.8, confirming the preliminary reading and rebounding from 49.9 a month earlier.

Elsewhere in Europe, manufacturing activity in France probably contracted for the sixth consecutive month. France’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will probably come in at 47.3, same as the flash PMI, further slowing down from September’s final value of 48.8.

Italy’s factory output likely expanded at the same pace as in September, 50.7, after it contracted in August.

Spain is expected to be the best performer among the major EU economies. The countrys manufacturing PMI came in at a better-than-expected 52.6, matching Septembers pace of expansion and beating analysts projections for a drop to 52.3.

Outside the Eurozone, Britain will likely report a further slowdown in its factory output, continuing a recent trend, but still it would be the 18th consecutive monthly expansion. The reading is projected to come in at 51.2, compared to 51.6 in September.

United States

Markit Economics will likely report that factory output in the US expanded at a solid pace in October, but slower from a month earlier. The respective Manufacturing PMI is expected to confirm a preliminary reading of 56.2, trailing Septembers final reading of 57.5.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management, whose manufacturing report is more widely tracked, is anticipated to report that manufacturing activity growth in the US remained robust, but it slowed down for the second consecutive month. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is poised to come in at 56.2 from 56.6 in September, registering the 17th straight month of expansion.

The report is also expected to show that the manufacturing employment subindex inched up to 54.8 from 54.6 a month earlier, complementing recent upbeat labor data from the US.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2542. In case EUR/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2600, it will probably continue up to test 1.2675. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2733.

If EUR/USD manages to breach the first key support at 1.2467, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2409. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2334.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2372, M2 – 1.2438, M3 – 1.2505, M4 – 1.2571, M5 – 1.2638, M6 – 1.2704.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2594. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2703, R2 – 1.2882, R3 – 1.2991. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2415, S2 – 1.2306, S3 – 1.2127.