Forex Market: NZD/USD daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw NZD/USD within the range of 0.7797-0.7880. The pair closed at 0.7816, losing 0.64% on a daily basis.

At 8:11 GMT today NZD/USD was up 0.45% for the day to trade at 0.7858. The pair touched a daily high at 0.7888 at 2:15 GMT.

Fundamental view

Chinese trade data

The kiwi dollar received support, following the release of Chinese trade data earlier in the day. China’s exports climbed at an annualized rate of 15.3% in September, or the fastest pace since February 2013, and also outstripped the median forecast by experts for an 11.8% gain. Total imports rose at a pace of 7% in September compared to the same month a year ago, beating expectations pointing to a 2.7% increase. Imports of iron ore registered the second highest level this year, while monthly crude oil imports expanded to their second highest level on record. At the same time, nation’s balance of trade produced a surplus at the amount of 31.00 billion USD in September, or below expectations of a surplus figure of 41.10 billion USD. This data usually has a certain impact on the New Zealand dollar, as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner.

Traders’ bets on Fed policy

US dollar lost ground against peers, as traders reduced their bets that the Federal Reserve Bank will introduce a rate hike in 2015. Market players saw a 32% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise the federal funds rate by July 2015, according to data by Bloomberg News. On September 30th the odds of such an action were 56%.

Markets in the United States and Japan are closed for public holidays today, while thin liquidity may boost volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market, according to Joseph Capurso, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.7831. In case NZD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7865, it will probably continue up to test 0.7914. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.7948.

If NZD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.7782, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7748. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7699.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.7724, M2 – 0.7765, M3 – 0.7807, M4 – 0.7848, M5 – 0.7890, M6 – 0.7931.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.7835. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.7957, R2 – 0.8099, R3 – 0.8221. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.7693, S2 – 0.7571, S3 – 0.7429.