Forex Market: EUR/CHF daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/CHF within the range of 1.2099-1.2144. The pair closed at 1.2129, gaining 0.16% on a daily basis.

At 6:26 GMT today EUR/CHF was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 1.2125. The pair touched a daily low at 1.2124 at 6:25 GMT.

Fundamental view

Switzerland

Consumer inflation

Annualized Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Switzerland probably showed a flat performance in September, according to expectations. In August Swiss inflation rate accelerated to 0.1% from 0.0% in the prior month. According to data by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), upward pressures were registered for education prices (an annualized increase by 2.0%), food (1.4%), restaurants and hotels (0.7%), recreation and culture (0.6%) and alcoholic drinks and tobacco (also 0.6%). On the other hand, costs of communication dropped 2.9%, prices of health services fell 1.2%, while costs of transport were 1% down.

The CPI measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also provides clues over purchasing trends. In case consumer inflation accelerated more than anticipated and approached the inflation target set by the Swiss National Bank, this would have a positive effect on the franc. The FSO is to release the official CPI report at 7:15 GMT.

Retail Sales

Annualized retail sales in Switzerland probably rose at a pace of 0.8% in August, according to the median estimate by experts, following a 0.6% drop in July. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. In case retail sales increased at a faster than expected pace, this would provide support to the franc. The Federal Statistical Office is expected to release the official report at 7:15 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.2124. In case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2149, it will probably continue up to test 1.2169. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2194.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2104, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2079. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2059.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.2069, M2 – 1.2092, M3 – 1.2114, M4 – 1.2137, M5 – 1.2159, M6 – 1.2182.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.2103. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.2161, R2 – 1.2208, R3 – 1.2266. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.2056, S2 – 1.1998, S3 – 1.1951.