Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 37.750-38.432. The pair closed at 38.350, gaining 1.46% on a daily basis.

At 6:59 GMT today USD/RUB was up 1.03% for the day to trade at 38.746. The pair broke the first key daily resistance and the first two key weekly resistance levels and touched a new record high at 38.796 at 6:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

United States’ annualized index of producer prices (PPI) probably rose to 1.8% in August, according to the median estimate by experts, from 1.7% in July. This index reflects the change in prices of over 8 000 products, sold by manufacturers during the respective period. The PPI differs from the CPI, which measures the change in prices from consumer’s perspective, due to subsidies, taxes and distribution costs of different types of manufacturers in the country. In case producers are forced to pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass these higher costs to the end consumer. Therefore, the PPI is considered as a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Higher than expected producer prices would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

Nation’s annualized core PPI, which excludes prices of volatile categories such as food and energy, probably accelerated 1.8% in August, following a 1.6% gain in the preceding month. This indicator is quite sensitive to changes in aggregate demand, thus, it can be used as a leading indicator for economy. However, because of its restrained scope, it is not suitable for future inflation forecasts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to publish the official PPI readings at 12:30 GMT.

Russian Federation

Annualized producer prices in the country probably increased 8.32% in August, following a 9% gain in the prior month. In monthly terms, the Producer Price Index (PPI) probably climbed 0.9% last month, after a 1.6% gain in July. The Federal State Statistics Service is to release the official data at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 38.177. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 38.605, it will probably continue up to test 38.860. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 39.287.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 37.922, it will probably continue to slide and test 37.495. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 37.241.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 37.368, M2 – 37.709, M3 – 38.050, M4 – 38.391, M5 – 38.732, M6 – 39.073.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 37.541. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 38.229, R2 – 38.658, R3 – 39.346. The three key support levels are: S1 – 37.112, S2 – 36.424, S3 – 35.995.