Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 36.680-37.096. The pair closed at 36.985, gaining 0.36% on a daily basis.

At 8:07 GMT today USD/RUB was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 36.924. The pair touched a daily low at 36.881 at 6:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

Employers in all sectors of economy in the United States, excluding the farming industry, probably added 225 000 new jobs in August, according to the median forecast by experts, after a job gain of 209 000 in July. The non-farm payrolls report presents the total number of US employees in any business, excluding the following four groups: farm employees, general government employees, employees of non-profit organizations, private household employees. The reading, released most often, varies between + 10 000 and as much as + 250 000 at times when economy is performing well. Despite the volatility and the possibility of large revisions, the non-farm payrolls indicator presents the most timely and comprehensive reflection of the current economic state. Total non-farm payrolls account for 80% of the workers, who produce the entire Gross Domestic Product of the United States. In case of a larger-than-expected gain in jobs, the US dollar would receive a boost.

Average Hourly Earnings probably increased 0.2% in August compared to July, after a flat performance in July compared to June.

At the same time, the rate of unemployment in the country probably fell to 6.1% in August, according to the median forecast by experts, from 6.2% in July. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. A person who is not classified as employed or unemployed is excluded from the statistics. One counts as unemployed, if he falls in all of the following categories: he/she was unemployed during the last week; he/she is able bodied; he/she has been seeking employment for a period of at least four weeks, which end during the week when the research is conducted. People, who have been laid off and are awaiting to be hired again, are also classified as unemployed. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even fell further, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the official employment data at 12:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 36.920. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 37.162, it will probably continue up to test 37.336. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 37.577.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 36.744, it will probably continue to slide and test 36.504. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 36.329.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 36.417, M2 – 36.625, M3 – 36.833, M4 – 37.041, M5 – 37.249, M6 – 37.457.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 36.753. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 37.511, R2 – 37.965, R3 – 38.723. The three key support levels are: S1 – 36.299, S2 – 35.541, S3 – 35.087.