Forex Market: AUD/CAD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/CAD within the range of 1.0118-1.0151. The pair closed at 1.0139, losing 0.08% on a daily basis.

At 9:24 GMT today AUD/CAD was up 0.40% for the day to trade at 1.0175. The pair broke the first key daily resistance and touched a daily high at 1.0180 at 9:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

Canada

Bank of Canada’s (BoC) Governing Council probably left the target for the benchmark interest rate (overnight rate) without change at 1.0% at its policy meeting today, according to expectations. At its meeting on July 16th the central bank left the Bank Rate at 1.25% and the deposit rate at 0.75%.

According to BoC Statement, general CPI has moved up to around the 2% objective during recent months, sooner than expected, while core consumer inflation has also increased, but remains below 2%. Recent higher inflation comes as a result of the temporary effects of higher energy prices, exchange rate pass-through and other sector-specific shocks rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals. The global economy is on a lower growth track than was foreseen at the time of the Monetary Policy Report in April. In order to accomplish the inflation objective on a sustained basis in 2016, the economy must reach and remain at full capacity. Canadian economy is expected to reach full capacity in mid-2016, a little later than projected in April.

Short-term interest rates are of utmost importance for the valuation of national currencies. In case Bank of Canada is hawkish about inflationary pressure in the economy and, thus, decides to introduce a rate hike, this will provide support to the loonie. Respectively, a decision (maintaining or cutting the benchmark rate), a result of a more dovish view, will have a bearish effect on the national currency.

The official policy decision is scheduled to be announced at 14:00 GMT.

Australia

Australian economy continued to expand during the second quarter of the year, which marked the 23rd consecutive year of economic growth, while other nations plunged into recession. The resource-oriented economy slightly slowed down the pace of growth in Q2, as investment activity in mining industry continued to decrease and amid falling prices of commodities and persistently high exchange rate of the Aussie dollar. Nation’s Gross Domestic Product rose 0.5% in Q2 compared to Q1, outpacing market expectations and following another 1.1% expansion during the first quarter.

In annual terms, Australian economy grew at a pace of 3.1% in Q2, which also surpassed the median forecast by experts, according to the report, released by the statistics bureau at 1:30 GMT today.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.0136. In case AUD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.0154, it will probably continue up to test 1.0169. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.0187.

If AUD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0121, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0103. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0088.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.0096, M2 – 1.0112, M3 – 1.0129, M4 – 1.0145, M5 – 1.0162, M6 – 1.0178.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.0162. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.0222, R2 – 1.0287, R3 – 1.0347. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0097, S2 – 1.0037, S3 – 0.9972.