Grains trading outlook: wheat, corn and soybeans futures gain ahead of Pro Farmer report

Wheat, corn and soybeans futures all added during midday in Europe today, as traders weighed crop outlooks and supply-side risks. Pro Farmers closely monitored crop assessment tour projected beans and corn yields at even higher rates than the all-time high forecast of the US Department of Agriculture.

The four-day tour, organized by agricultural adviser Pro Farmer to asses crop quality across seven states, concludes today, and on Friday the consultancy will release its forecast for average US corn and soybean yields.

The USDA monthly crop report said global supplies of wheat at the end of the 2014-15 season will be at the record 192.96 million metric tons, while the US corn harvest was projected at the record 14.03 billion bushels, and beans were forecast at a record 3.82 billion bushels.

Wheat futures for September delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) traded at $5.426 per bushel at 11:18 GMT, up 0.60%. The contract lost 1.19% on Wednesday.

Wheat prices were pushed higher partly because of ongoing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which combined account for about 20% of total wheat exports.

“We really do need a significant supply side shock to see the market climb higher,” Graydon Chong, an analyst at Rabobank International, said for Bloomberg. “As the world’s production is set up at the moment, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see anything in the short term.”

December corn on the CBOT stood at $3.690 per bushel, up 0.41%. Corn closed Wednesdays session 1.2% higher.

“Theres no other way to describe it—this crop is just going to be monstrous,” said Jon Marcus, president of brokerage Lakefront Futures & Options LLC in Chicago, cited by The Wall Street Journal. He added that corn futures may drop as low as $3.30 a bushel during the harvest. “The weather has been perfect.”

Meanwhile, beans futures for November were at $10.432 per bushel, up 0.51%. Beans prices were down 1.4% as trading closed yesterday.

Both soybeans and corn crops were reported in mostly good condition in USDAs weekly crop report on Monday, reaffirming positive outlooks.

Technical support and resistance levels

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat September future’s central pivot point on the CBOT stands at $5.409. The contract will see its first resistance level at $5.477. If breached, it will advance to $5.559 and then to $5.627 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $5.327. Should it be broken, wheat will test $5.259 and after that $5.177 per bushel.

December corn’s central pivot is at $3.683. The future will have its first resistance at $3.711 and if it broken it will advance first to $3.749 and then to $3.777 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $3.645. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $3.617. If both support levels are penetrated corn will test $3.579 per bushel.

Beans November future’s central pivot is projected at $10.431. The contract will have the front resistance level at $10.499. If it manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $10.617 and then $10.685 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $10.313, $10.245 and $10.127 per bushel.