Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 36.007-36.217. The pair closed at 36.170, gaining 0.25% on a daily basis.

At 7:34 GMT today USD/RUB was up 0.15% for the day to trade at 36.223. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and touched a daily high at 36.261 at 6:25 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

At 18:00 GMT the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes from its meeting on policy held on July 29th-30th. The minutes offer detailed insights on FOMC’s monetary policy stance. This release is closely examined by traders, as it may provide clues over interest rate decisions in the future. High volatility is usually present after the publication.

Russian Federation

At 12:00 GMT the Ministry of Economic Development in Russia is scheduled to report on countrys Gross Domestic Product for July. Russias economic growth slowed down to 0.6% in June compared to the same month a year ago, which has been the slowest pace since January. In May nations annualized GDP grew 1.3%. The GDP represents the total monetary value of all goods and services produced by one nation over a specific period of time. What is more, it is the widest indicator of economic activity in the country.

The report on GDP is of huge importance for traders, operating in the Foreign Exchange Market, because it serves as evidence of growth in a productive economy, or as evidence of contraction in an unproductive one. As a result, currency traders will look for higher rates of growth as a sign that interest rates will probably follow the same direction. Higher interest rates will usually attract more investors, willing to purchase assets in the Russian Federation, while, at the same time, this will increase demand for the ruble. Therefore, in case growth rate accelerated, this would provide support to the local currency.

According to preliminary data from Russias Federal Statistics Service, nations GDP expanded 0.8% during the second quarter of the year compared to the same period a year ago, following a 0.9% expansion in Q1. GDP growth in the country has been decelerating since Q1 2012, when economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.8%. Last month the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised down its growth forecast for Russia to 0.2% for 2014 (1.3% previously) and to 1% for 2015 (2.3% previously). The IMF cited increasing geopolitical tension and waning demand in the country as the main factors behind its decision.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 36.131. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 36.256, it will probably continue up to test 36.342. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 36.466.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 36.045, it will probably continue to slide and test 35.921. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 35.836.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 35.879, M2 – 35.984, M3 – 36.089, M4 – 36.194, M5 – 36.299, M6 – 36.404.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 36.073. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 36.336, R2 – 36.557, R3 – 36.820. The three key support levels are: S1 – 35.852, S2 – 35.589, S3 – 35.368.