Forex Market: AUD/JPY daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw AUD/JPY within the range of 95.25-95.71. The pair closed at 95.66, gaining 0.28% on a daily basis.

At 8:49 GMT today AUD/JPY was up 0.14% for the day to trade at 95.78. The pair broke the first key daily resistance level and touched a daily high at 95.87 at 3:15 GMT.

Fundamental view

Japan

The deficit on Japanese seasonally adjusted trade balance probably narrowed to 0.770 trillion JPY during July from a deficit of 1.081 trillion JPY, registered in June. The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. A positive balance signifies a trade surplus and a negative balance signifies a trade deficit. The balance of trade reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product.

Annualized exports probably rose 3.8% last month, following a drop of 2.0% in June. Annualized imports probably decreased 1.7% in July, after a surge of 8.4% in the preceding month. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. In case the trade balance deficit contracted more than anticipated, this would provide support to the yen. The Ministry of Finance will release the official numbers at 23:50 GMT.

On August 8th Bank of Japan revised down its projections regarding nations exports and manufacturing activity.

Australia

The minutes from Reserve Bank of Australias most recent policy meeting, released earlier today, showed that economic prospects remain unsure due to a number of factors with adverse influence. The central bank underscored that interest rates will probably stay at the current record low level of 2.50%. According to the minutes, Australian GDP growth probably slowed down to show a more moderate pace in the second quarter of the year.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 95.54. In case AUD/JPY manages to breach the first resistance level at 95.83, it will probably continue up to test 96.00. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 96.29.

If AUD/JPY manages to breach the first key support at 95.37, it will probably continue to slide and test 95.08. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 94.91.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 95.00, M2 – 95.23, M3 – 95.46, M4 – 95.69, M5 – 95.92, M6 – 96.15.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 95.27. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 95.82, R2 – 96.24, R3 – 96.79. The three key support levels are: S1 – 94.85, S2 – 94.30, S3 – 93.88.