Forex Market: USD/RUB daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw USD/RUB within the range of 35.884-36.290. The pair closed at 36.115, gaining 0.22% on a daily basis.

At 7:41 GMT today USD/RUB was down 0.18% for the day to trade at 36.048. The pair touched a daily low at 35.930 at 5:55 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably remained unchanged at a reading of 53.0 in August. It is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher than projected readings would provide support to the US dollar. The official data is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Russian Federation

Annualized retail sales in the Russian Federation probably rose at a pace of 0.4% in July, according to the median estimate by experts, following another 0.7% climb in June. However, the annualized rate of increase has been slowing down since March. This indicator reflects the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales by retailers in the country and provides key information regarding consumer spending trend, while the latter is a major driving force behind economic growth. In case retail sales increased at a slower than expected pace, this would have a bearish effect on the ruble. The Federal State Statistics Service in Russia is scheduled to release the official report at 12:00 GMT.

At the same time, annualized producer prices in the country probably increased 6.87% in July, following an 8.90% gain in the prior month. In monthly terms, the Producer Price Index (PPI) probably climbed 0.5% last month, after a 0.8% gain in June. This index measures the average change over time in the selling prices, received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI differs from the CPI, which measures the change in prices from consumer’s perspective. As the producer price index reflects prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level is usually passed through to the consumer price index (CPI).

Traders and market analysts consider the PPI for finished goods as a precursor of consumer price inflation. In case the prices, which manufacturers pay for their raw materials, surge, producers would have to increase the prices, which consumers pay for their finished goods, in order to sustain their profit margins. Lower than expected producer prices usually have a bearish effect on the national currency. The PPI data is due out at 12:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 36.096. In case USD/RUB manages to breach the first resistance level at 36.309, it will probably continue up to test 36.502. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 36.715.

If USD/RUB manages to breach the first key support at 35.903, it will probably continue to slide and test 35.690. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 35.497.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 35.594, M2 – 35.797, M3 – 36.000, M4 – 36.203, M5 – 36.406, M6 – 36.609.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 36.073. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 36.336, R2 – 36.557, R3 – 36.820. The three key support levels are: S1 – 35.852, S2 – 35.589, S3 – 35.368.