Forex Market: NZD/USD daily trading forecast

Friday’s trade saw NZD/USD within the range of 0.8468-0.8502. The pair closed at 0.8485, gaining 0.05% on a daily basis.

At 9:39 GMT today NZD/USD was down 0.02% for the day to trade at 0.8483. The pair touched a daily low at 0.8476 at 8:50 GMT.

Fundamental view

New Zealand

The Output Producer Price Index in New Zealand, which measures the change in prices received by producers, probably increased 0.8% during the second quarter of the year compared to the first quarter, according to expectations. In Q1 compared to Q4 2013 the Output PPI climbed 0.9%. Output prices of electricity and gas supply surged 14%, while output prices of dairy cattle farming rose 4.0%. An increase in this index usually leads to higher retail prices for end consumers, therefore, in case the output PPI climbed more than projected, it would be positive for the New Zealand dollar.

The Input Producer Price Index, which reflects the change in prices paid by producers, probably increased 0.7% in Q2 compared to the first quarter. In Q1 compared to Q4 2013 the Input PPI increased 1.0%. Input prices of electricity and gas supply climbed 20%, while input prices of dairy product manufacturing rose 3.1%.

Statistics New Zealand is to release the official data at 22:45 GMT.

United States

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably remained unchanged at a reading of 53.0 in August. It is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher than projected readings would provide support to the US dollar. The official data is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.8485. In case NZD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8502, it will probably continue up to test 0.8519. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8536.

If NZD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.8468, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8451. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8434.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 0.8443, M2 – 0.8460, M3 – 0.8477, M4 – 0.8494, M5 – 0.8511, M6 – 0.8528.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.8473. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.8526, R2 – 0.8567, R3 – 0.8620. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.8432, S2 – 0.8379, S3 – 0.8338.