Forex Market: GBP/CHF daily forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw GBP/CHF within the range of 1.5210-1.5279. The pair closed at 1.5254, gaining 0.24% on a daily basis.

At 6:45 GMT today GBP/CHF was up 0.10% for the day to trade at 1.5272. The pair touched a daily high at 1.5275 at 6:46 GMT.

Fundamental view

United Kingdom

The number of people, who applied for unemployment assistance, in the United Kingdom probably decreased by 30 000 in July, following another drop by 36 300 during the prior month. The claimant count rate probably fell to 3.0% last month from 3.1% in June. It represents the number of jobless claims as a percentage from the entire work force in the country.

The rate of unemployment in the UK, estimated in accordance with ILO (International Labour Organization) standards, probably dropped to 6.4% during the three months through June compared to the same period a year ago, from 6.5% in the three months through May. This indicator refers to the percentage of economically active people, who are currently unemployed. According to the ILO approach, people who are considered as unemployed are either: 1) Out of work, but are actively searching for employment, or 2) Out of work and are waiting to be hired again during the next two weeks.

The ILO Unemployment Rate is based on a monthly survey, known as the Labour Force Survey in the United Kingdom, with approximately 40 000 individuals being interviewed every month. This indicator reflects overall economic state in the country, as there is a strong correlation between consumer spending levels and labor market conditions. High rates of unemployment are accompanied by lesser spending, which causes an adverse effect on corporate profits and also slows down overall growth. In case, however, the rate of unemployment fell more than projected, this would have a bullish effect on the sterling. The official report is due out at 8:30 GMT.

At 9:30 GMT Bank of England is scheduled to publish its quarterly report, containing inflation rate and economic growth projections in regard to the next two years. In case the report outlines a hawkish outlook, this usually provides support to the national currency, while a dovish outlook usually has a bearish effect on the pound.

Switzerland

The gauge of economic sentiment in Switzerland probably plunged to -1.0 in July, according to the median forecast by experts. In June the index came in at a reading of 0.1. The ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) economic expectations index is published on a monthly basis. The study encompasses up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The indicator reflects the difference between the share of analysts, that are optimistic and those, that are pessimistic about the expected economic development in Switzerland over the next six months. A positive value indicates that the proportion of optimists is larger than that of pessimists. A ZEW reading of -100 suggests that all analysts are pessimistic about the current developments and expect economic conditions to deteriorate. A ZEW reading of 100 implies that all analysts are optimistic about the current situation and expect conditions to improve. A ZEW reading of 0 indicates neutrality. Lower than projected readings would have a bearish effect on the franc. The official data is scheduled to be released at 9:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.5248. In case GBP/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.5285, it will probably continue up to test 1.5317. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.5354.

If GBP/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.5216, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.5179. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.5147.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.5163, M2 – 1.5198, M3 – 1.5232, M4 – 1.5267, M5 – 1.5301, M6 – 1.5336.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.5242. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.5309, R2 – 1.5427, R3 – 1.5494. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.5124, S2 – 1.5057, S3 – 1.4939.